NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	93		Excitement	9.1 [118]		MVP	James Jones (MIA): +38.8%
Miami Heat	87		Comeback	27.9 [27]		LVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): -15.2%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasual Butler	0.33	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	-0.04	0.35	-0.01	9	39%	0.34	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
David West	0.18	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.24,-0.27,-0.25,-0.18,-0.18,-0.09,-0.06,0.18	-0.06	0.23	-0.01	22	40%	0.20	1	-0.01	6	67%	-0.08
Peja Stojakovic	0.14	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14	0.08	0.08	0.02	18	59%	0.16	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Chris Paul	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.14,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.12	-0.05	0.14	-0.02	26	46%	0.20	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.03
Sean Marks	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	3	100%	0.11	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Hilton Armstrong	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Julian Wright	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.19,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39	0.39	0.07	0.31	-0.00	5	90%	0.40	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.13	0.09	0.02	16	64%	0.22	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.18,-0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.07,0.01,0.14	0.14	-0.02	0.16	-0.00	27	51%	0.47	6	-0.34	9	89%	0.07
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.01	5	36%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.03
Yakhouba Diawara	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jamario Moon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.12	-0.02	-0.04	7	14%	-0.09	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.17,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.05	-0.02	10	28%	-0.08	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.1	2.5	30.4	16.3	23.3	1.8	36.3	1.8	20.0	157.6
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	2.0	41.4	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +46.6%

MIA -40.9%

NOH +3.6%

NOH +27.5%

NOH +13.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	MIA	NBA	NOH	MIA	NBA
this game	18.3	15.7	15.5	100.0	92.6	106.4
season	16.6	16.0		105.9	105.9
opponent	15.7	15.6		105.7	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
NOH	15.7	20.3	17.8	18.4	21.6	18.3
MIA	15.6	15.7	16.5	16.8	11.8	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David West	82	83	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.33	14	-8	22	18.3	18.6	-0.38	15.2	19.9	-4.74
Chris Paul	81	82	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.25	12	-6	18	18.3	18.5	-0.23	15.7	15.6	0.16
Peja Stojakovic	81	84	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.16	6	0	6	18.1	19.7	-1.57	15.5	17.6	-2.10
Sean Marks	37	36	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.18	3	3	0	19.4	17.6	1.88	16.7	15.1	1.57
Morris Peterson	16	15	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.14	0	6	-6	19.8	18.0	1.83	17.3	15.4	1.92
Rasual Butler	74	75	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	3	0	17.9	20.1	-2.20	16.1	14.3	1.76
Antonio Daniels	12	12	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.08	-6	12	-18	18.5	18.3	0.23	15.6	15.7	-0.16
Hilton Armstrong	47	49	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.18	-3	9	-12	16.8	19.8	-3.06	15.7	15.7	0.02
Julian Wright	17	16	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.04	-11	17	-28	18.3	18.3	-0.01	18.8	15.1	3.72

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	55	54	0.24	-0.74	0.98	0.01	8	-14	22	15.8	15.6	0.14	18.6	17.8	0.83
Chris Quinn	12	12	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.08	6	-12	18	15.6	15.7	-0.16	18.5	18.3	0.23
Yakhouba Diawara	17	16	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.09	-4	-2	-2	17.9	15.2	2.64	16.8	18.6	-1.80
Jamaal Magloire	30	30	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.10	1	-7	8	17.3	15.0	2.36	19.5	17.7	1.72
Jamario Moon	58	59	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.19	-4	-2	-2	15.7	15.7	-0.04	17.5	19.8	-2.31
Michael Beasley	84	83	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.40	1	-7	8	15.7	16.0	-0.31	18.6	15.9	2.69
Mario Chalmers	63	62	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.07	-10	4	-14	16.0	15.1	0.98	18.2	18.5	-0.23
Jermaine O'Neal	65	63	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.24	-10	4	-14	15.3	16.6	-1.25	17.9	19.2	-1.33
Dwyane Wade	77	77	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.32	-12	6	-18	15.2	18.2	-3.07	18.2	18.6	-0.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.23,0.13,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.53,0.37,0.3,0.19,0.22,0.14,0.21,0.67,0.92,0.46,0.25,0.28,0.11,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 110, IND 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.39,0.31,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.41,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.32,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.11,0.1,0.16,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.24,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.18,0.23,0.36,0.55,0.84,0.46,0.25,0.11,0.23,0.16,0	90.0%
MIA 116, NYK 110	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.13,0.15,0.27,0.32,0.26,0.28,0.24,0.3,0.21,0.26,0.15,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.24,0.73,0.54,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.04,0	88.1%
CLE 108, ORL 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.32,0.21,0.17,0.2,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.34,0.28,0.15,0.11,0.24,0.35,0.19,0.22,0.33,0.74,0.46,0.31,0.08,0.15,0,0	87.8%