NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	108		Excitement	8.3 [217]		MVP	Donyell Marshall (CLE): +39.2%
Orlando Magic	100		Comeback	9.9 [111]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -17.0%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0.39	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.39	0.08	0.28	-0.03	12	71%	0.44	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0.23	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.08	0.16	0.01	13	67%	0.30	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Drew Gooden	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	7	61%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Damon Jones	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.00	6	62%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Larry Hughes	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	18	52%	0.13	3	-0.12	6	67%	-0.10
Alan Henderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Jackson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Snow	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.02,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14	0.05	-0.15	0.04	20	51%	-0.11	2	-0.04	11	64%	-0.03

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.14	0.06	0.00	13	70%	0.21	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.02	-0.03	11	56%	0.11	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	0.00	6	67%	0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.01	9	56%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terence Morris	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	100%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	0.04	16	55%	0.07	5	-0.14	8	100%	0.14
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	0.02	-0.15	0.04	13	55%	-0.07	2	-0.09	5	100%	0.04
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.15	-0.06	-0.03	4	25%	-0.07	5	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.2	2.5	28.6	16.7	26.3	3.3	38.5	1.7	22.0	161.8
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	1.8	17.8	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +81.6%

ORL -39.1%

ORL -33.4%

CLE +27.5%

CLE +13.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	ORL	NBA	CLE	ORL	NBA
this game	16.0	16.5	15.6	110.2	102.0	104.4
season	16.2	16.4		105.6	104.4
opponent	15.7	15.5		105.9	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CLE	20.7	13.0	16.1	18.1	10.7	16.0
ORL	19.3	17.0	15.9	14.6	15.6	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Larry Hughes	82	83	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.32	10	-2	12	15.6	17.7	-2.04	16.7	15.5	1.18
Eric Snow	75	73	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.22	11	-3	14	16.0	16.0	-0.03	16.8	15.5	1.33
LeBron James	92	91	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.25	7	1	6	15.9	17.2	-1.26	16.2	20.4	-4.26
Donyell Marshall	69	68	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.05	9	-1	10	14.6	19.2	-4.58	16.3	16.8	-0.48
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	61	64	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.19	-1	9	-10	17.3	13.9	3.40	15.9	17.6	-1.71
Alan Henderson	18	17	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.04	4	4	0	14.6	16.3	-1.74	16.6	16.4	0.21
Damon Jones	38	37	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.23	-4	12	-16	16.6	15.6	0.94	14.9	17.4	-2.53
Drew Gooden	45	46	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.03	3	5	-2	16.9	15.2	1.64	17.5	15.6	1.86
Luke Jackson	10	11	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.00	1	7	-6	17.4	15.8	1.58	20.6	15.9	4.69

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terence Morris	8	8	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-9	10	14.7	16.6	-1.87	18.7	15.7	3.02
Tony Battie	50	48	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.10	-1	-7	6	17.2	15.7	1.45	16.7	15.3	1.47
Keyon Dooling	18	16	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.05	-3	-5	2	17.2	16.3	0.92	14.9	16.2	-1.32
Kelvin Cato	8	9	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.01	-6	-2	-4	19.2	16.2	3.03	12.4	16.3	-3.89
Hedo Turkoglu	71	71	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.26	3	-11	14	17.0	15.1	1.87	17.0	13.3	3.70
Dwight Howard	84	83	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.24	-1	-7	6	16.4	17.0	-0.62	16.7	11.9	4.86
Jameer Nelson	30	32	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.02	-11	3	-14	14.6	17.3	-2.69	14.0	16.9	-2.89
Pat Garrity	53	54	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.22	-6	-2	-4	15.8	17.3	-1.52	14.9	17.3	-2.43
Steve Francis	86	87	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.21	-7	-1	-6	16.6	15.8	0.72	16.1	14.6	1.51
DeShawn Stevenson	82	82	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.19	-9	1	-10	16.5	16.6	-0.11	15.5	18.2	-2.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.32,0.21,0.17,0.2,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.34,0.28,0.15,0.11,0.24,0.35,0.19,0.22,0.33,0.74,0.46,0.31,0.08,0.15,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 104, CHA 94	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.15,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.16,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.24,0.45,0.43,0.58,0.46,0.55,0.17,0.03,0,0	89.6%
WAS 114, MIL 109	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.35,0.34,0.26,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.22,0.26,0.28,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.16,0.18,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.35,0.33,0.47,0.16,0.23,0.73,0.54,0.31,0.28,0.06,0.01,0	89.2%
MIA 116, NYK 110	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.13,0.15,0.27,0.32,0.26,0.28,0.24,0.3,0.21,0.26,0.15,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.24,0.73,0.54,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.04,0	89.1%