NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	86		Excitement	7.2 [378]		MVP	Chris Paul (NOH): +38.4%
New Orleans Hornets	90		Comeback	2.6 [340]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -9.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11	0.01	0.09	-0.01	12	50%	0.14	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	5	75%	0.08	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Bonner	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	7	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	-0.04	0.01	15	59%	0.10	2	-0.11	4	100%	0.03
Manu Ginobili	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	0.05	-0.04	0.03	11	61%	0.06	2	-0.08	6	83%	0.02
George Hill	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	6	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1	0.01	-0.11	-0.00	14	51%	0.02	2	-0.11	9	78%	0.02

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.38	0.38	0.10	0.26	-0.02	18	58%	0.44	2	-0.06	9	100%	0.10
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.01	0.00	4	100%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Julian Wright	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.05	-0.00	9	47%	0.10	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	5	30%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hilton Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	58%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	8	36%	-0.09	1	0.00	6	100%	0.03
David West	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.14,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.07	0.01	18	49%	0.00	2	-0.09	11	100%	0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	3.4	32.7	19.4	28.2	3.8	38.2	151.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -9.4%

NOH +45.8%

NOH +2.0%

NOH +11.6%

SAS -0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	NOH	NBA	SAS	NOH	NBA
this game	16.6	16.7	15.5	100.0	103.4	106.4
season	16.4	16.6		106.6	105.9
opponent	15.6	15.7		106.0	103.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.4	16.6	18.5	14.0	16.6
NOH	18.6	16.9	13.6	18.1	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Bonner	34	34	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.28	8	-12	20	15.4	17.3	-1.96	17.9	16.0	1.90
Ime Udoka	40	41	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.14	2	-6	8	16.4	16.7	-0.22	16.2	17.2	-1.00
Tony Parker	70	71	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.30	6	-10	16	16.1	18.6	-2.52	16.7	16.7	-0.03
George Hill	9	10	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-2	0	17.9	16.4	1.47	11.9	17.4	-5.45
Drew Gooden	33	33	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.01	-7	3	-10	18.1	15.6	2.42	16.2	17.0	-0.78
Roger Mason Jr.	41	40	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.13	-5	1	-6	17.1	16.1	1.06	17.4	16.2	1.20
Kurt Thomas	32	32	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.09	-7	3	-10	16.4	16.7	-0.26	15.8	17.2	-1.39
Tim Duncan	63	64	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.29	-1	-3	2	16.8	16.0	0.72	17.1	15.7	1.46
Michael Finley	60	61	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.27	-4	0	-4	16.4	17.0	-0.67	16.8	16.5	0.32
Manu Ginobili	48	49	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.29	-10	6	-16	16.6	16.6	-0.02	17.1	16.2	0.87

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David West	75	74	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.37	11	-7	18	17.1	14.1	3.06	16.5	16.8	-0.31
Chris Paul	78	77	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.42	-1	5	-6	16.2	21.0	-4.77	16.4	18.0	-1.60
Antonio Daniels	38	37	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.16	5	-1	6	16.2	17.1	-0.91	17.2	16.1	1.18
Sean Marks	26	24	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.10	6	-2	8	18.7	15.9	2.75	18.6	15.8	2.79
Julian Wright	56	56	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.41	-6	10	-16	16.8	16.6	0.17	16.6	16.5	0.06
Rasual Butler	75	75	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.27	-2	6	-8	15.9	22.0	-6.12	16.2	19.3	-3.10
Hilton Armstrong	54	55	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.26	-4	8	-12	16.3	17.5	-1.18	15.9	17.8	-1.98
Morris Peterson	9	9	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.04	5	-1	6	21.0	16.2	4.77	18.0	16.4	1.60
Melvin Ely	5	5	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.01	3	1	2	14.4	16.9	-2.47	14.2	16.7	-2.52
Devin Brown	19	18	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	1	2	18.5	16.2	2.24	17.1	16.4	0.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.81,0.78,0.9,0.79,0.85,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 75, MIN 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.39,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.63,0.75,0.8,0.87,0.86,0.96,0.97,0.99,1	93.8%
GSW 90, CHA 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.76,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.95,1,1	93.3%
MIL 80, PHI 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.72,0.74,0.66,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.59,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.89,0.94,0.98,1	92.7%