NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	116		Excitement	3.4 [1129]		MVP	Linas Kleiza (DEN): +15.7%
Denver Nuggets	129		Comeback	2.8 [1063]		LVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): -5.8%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Morrow	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	0.01	0.04	14	64%	0.06	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	13	46%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ronny Turiaf	0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Randolph	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.06	11	42%	0.02	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Rob Kurz	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	37%	-0.01	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Jamal Crawford	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.09	-0.00	0.10	21	62%	0.04	5	-0.06	6	83%	-0.01
Kelenna Azubuike	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.01	0.04	17	58%	0.02	4	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Monta Ellis	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	19	40%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.03	-0.01	14	69%	0.16	1	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	10	54%	0.08	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	5	58%	0.07	0	0.00	9	56%	-0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.03	6	62%	0.06	1	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.15	0.00	0.13	21	67%	0.05	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	6	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	5	80%	0.06	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Renaldo Balkman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.08	0.00	0.08	4	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	0	0%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	13	38%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	4	30%	-0.03	1	-0.00	2	50%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.4	2.6	28.1	15.4	23.6	2.3	24.5	127.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +28.6%

DEN +5.3%

DEN +4.1%

DEN +10.9%

DEN +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	14.1	12.8	15.5	107.4	121.7	106.4
season	13.8	14.4		107.3	109.5
opponent	15.7	15.0		105.2	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	16.3	14.8	13.8	11.8	14.1
DEN	11.4	12.9	11.9	14.9	12.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ Watson	61	60	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.29	5	-18	23	12.8	15.8	-2.97	14.0	11.2	2.83
Ronny Turiaf	42	43	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-9	5	15.1	13.5	1.62	13.4	12.3	1.12
Anthony Randolph	69	67	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.14	-12	-1	-11	14.1	14.2	-0.04	12.4	13.4	-0.97
Rob Kurz	32	30	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.15	-13	0	-13	14.4	14.0	0.39	10.9	13.5	-2.57
Kelenna Azubuike	78	78	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.38	1	-14	15	14.5	13.2	1.24	13.3	11.4	1.88
Monta Ellis	83	81	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.21	-21	8	-29	14.5	13.0	1.42	12.2	14.7	-2.55
Anthony Morrow	82	80	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.13	-12	-1	-11	13.5	16.3	-2.82	13.2	11.4	1.79
Jamal Crawford	93	91	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.26	-9	-4	-5	14.5	12.1	2.40	12.2	16.0	-3.76

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	67	69	0.48	0.02	0.45	-0.37	29	-16	45	12.1	14.0	-1.90	14.9	12.7	2.25
Kenyon Martin	57	58	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.30	23	-10	33	12.3	13.4	-1.10	15.0	13.1	1.84
J.R. Smith	49	50	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.12	16	-3	19	11.1	14.2	-3.15	14.5	13.8	0.62
Anthony Carter	55	55	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.34	0	13	-13	12.1	13.5	-1.46	13.0	15.3	-2.26
Chris Andersen	47	48	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.09	14	-1	15	11.0	14.2	-3.19	14.4	13.9	0.55
Chauncey Billups	60	61	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.22	15	-2	17	13.2	12.2	1.10	15.0	13.0	2.04
Nene	53	53	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.00	6	7	-1	13.4	12.2	1.17	14.5	13.8	0.71
Renaldo Balkman	46	47	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.50	-13	26	-39	13.6	12.1	1.48	13.1	14.9	-1.74
Linas Kleiza	46	46	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.45	-12	25	-37	13.8	12.0	1.74	13.7	14.5	-0.83
Dahntay Jones	38	39	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.01	1	12	-11	13.6	12.3	1.34	13.8	14.3	-0.52
Jason Hart	6	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	20	-27	21.5	12.2	9.25	9.3	14.5	-5.18
Johan Petro	6	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	20	-27	21.5	12.2	9.25	9.3	14.5	-5.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.33,0.34,0.41,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.67,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.75,0.81,0.88,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 95, CLE 122	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.44,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.57,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.95,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
LAL 101, SEA 117	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.32,0.38,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.6,0.69,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.89,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
ATL 83, LAL 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.37,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.83,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%