NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	106		Excitement	8.2 [198]		MVP	Brandon Rush (IND): +28.3%
Chicago Bulls	112		Comeback	3.5 [667]		LVP	Jarrett Jack (IND): -24.2%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Rush	0.28	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.22	0.10	0.04	19	74%	0.28	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Danny Granger	0.10	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.29,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.16,0.16,0.1	0.12	-0.03	-0.01	24	57%	0.15	1	-0.04	8	100%	0.05
T.J. Ford	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07	0.00	0.05	-0.02	12	54%	0.11	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Maceo Baston	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Graham	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	10	30%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.04	-0.10	0.00	8	39%	-0.11	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Jarrett Jack	-0.24	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.16,-0.24,-0.24	-0.08	-0.18	-0.03	14	36%	-0.19	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.05,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.04	0.23	0.02	15	69%	0.39	5	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.06	-0.01	11	61%	0.17	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.05	0.01	10	69%	0.15	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.04
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.13	0.02	0.01	18	66%	0.18	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.02	4	73%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	8	35%	-0.02	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	18	41%	-0.06	2	-0.05	3	67%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.7	27.2	16.5	24.5	2.4	35.6	132.0
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +56.9%

CHI +5.0%

IND -12.0%

IND -1.9%

CHI +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	CHI	NBA	IND	CHI	NBA
this game	14.6	14.4	15.5	107.1	112.0	106.4
season	14.1	14.8		106.5	106.3
opponent	15.7	15.3		107.2	107.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	15.3	13.3	16.4	13.3	14.6
CHI	14.7	13.8	12.4	16.7	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephen Graham	10	9	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.08	0	-6	6	12.3	14.8	-2.54	16.2	14.2	2.05
Maceo Baston	4	6	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.10	-6	0	-6	17.7	14.5	3.30	12.5	14.5	-1.98
Jeff Foster	85	86	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.41	11	-17	28	14.6	14.8	-0.23	14.5	13.2	1.33
Roy Hibbert	44	44	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.04	-2	-4	2	13.9	15.1	-1.22	13.7	14.8	-1.09
Jarrett Jack	82	82	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.21	0	-6	6	14.9	13.2	1.70	14.9	11.9	3.01
Rasho Nesterovic	34	34	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.04	-8	2	-10	16.1	13.8	2.38	13.3	14.9	-1.66
T.J. Ford	67	69	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.30	-3	-3	0	14.4	14.9	-0.43	14.9	13.3	1.60
Danny Granger	88	87	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	-3	0	13.9	19.8	-5.89	14.6	12.8	1.74
Brandon Rush	81	83	-0.86	0.36	-1.21	-0.30	-19	13	-32	15.0	12.8	2.21	13.7	17.6	-3.96

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Gordon	84	85	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.29	17	-11	28	14.2	15.2	-0.99	14.7	13.6	1.10
Brad Miller	61	62	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.29	7	-1	8	15.4	12.7	2.69	14.8	14.3	0.50
Tyrus Thomas	65	66	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.33	1	5	-4	14.0	15.1	-1.12	15.5	12.8	2.70
Kirk Hinrich	52	50	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.07	7	-1	8	13.7	15.1	-1.43	14.5	14.6	-0.09
John Salmons	82	79	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.36	-3	9	-12	14.5	13.9	0.57	15.2	12.3	2.86
Joakim Noah	74	70	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.03	4	2	2	13.8	15.8	-2.01	13.6	17.0	-3.46
Tim Thomas	13	14	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.09	8	-2	10	13.8	14.4	-0.68	12.6	14.9	-2.26
Derrick Rose	69	69	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.35	-11	17	-28	15.1	12.8	2.25	14.2	15.6	-1.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.31,0.24,0.23,0.28,0.32,0.36,0.42,0.51,0.59,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.55,0.66,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.9,0.86,0.76,0.72,0.69,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.77,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 102, MEM 105	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.36,0.43,0.44,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.92,0.77,0.74,0.6,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.68,0.85,1	91.6%
GSW 87, CHI 94	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.69,0.6,0.64,0.74,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.77,0.79,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.85,0.98,1	90.9%
NJN 105, MIA 106	0.5,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.27,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.55,0.66,0.52,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.85,0.96,1	90.5%