NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	88		Excitement	7.0 [423]		MVP	T.J. Ford (IND): +24.7%
Indiana Pacers	90		Comeback	2.0 [563]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -34.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luther Head	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.00	7	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	58%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Udonis Haslem	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.01	0.11	-0.09	0.01	12	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.02
Michael Beasley	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	9	45%	0.01	1	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	14	43%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jamario Moon	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	7	33%	-0.04	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	-0.34	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.12,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.24,-0.24,-0.34	-0.14	-0.21	0.00	24	35%	-0.27	2	-0.07	12	83%	0.02

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.08	0.15	-0.02	14	62%	0.28	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.04
Danny Granger	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.08	0.01	20	61%	0.24	4	-0.10	6	83%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	83%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Maceo Baston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	11	46%	0.02	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	16	41%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	6	36%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	8	37%	-0.04	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.4	29.8	15.7	27.6	2.7	35.0	136.3
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +72.0%

MIA -4.0%

MIA -6.8%

MIA -13.0%

IND +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	15.9	15.4	15.5	94.6	98.9	106.4
season	16.0	14.1		105.9	106.5
opponent	15.3	15.7		107.7	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.3	15.5	16.3	15.5	15.9
IND	14.3	15.8	15.0	16.5	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	34	33	0.23	-0.73	0.95	-0.18	14	-16	30	15.9	15.9	-0.07	17.1	14.4	2.69
Daequan Cook	11	11	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.01	4	-6	10	18.5	15.6	2.87	17.3	15.1	2.16
Jamaal Magloire	15	15	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.05	-1	-1	0	16.1	15.9	0.17	15.3	15.4	-0.13
Jermaine O'Neal	61	59	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.16	3	-5	8	15.9	16.0	-0.11	15.4	15.3	0.14
Luther Head	30	29	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.12	0	-2	2	16.5	15.6	0.90	15.9	15.1	0.77
Michael Beasley	36	36	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.21	3	-5	8	16.6	15.5	1.07	16.8	14.4	2.42
Jamario Moon	57	56	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.25	-11	9	-20	15.5	16.6	-1.03	14.1	17.5	-3.39
Mario Chalmers	73	71	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.41	-7	5	-12	15.7	16.9	-1.24	15.3	15.5	-0.16
Udonis Haslem	73	71	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.44	-7	5	-12	15.8	16.3	-0.48	14.8	17.5	-2.79
Dwyane Wade	75	74	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.46	-8	6	-14	15.7	16.9	-1.26	15.0	17.0	-2.00

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Foster	72	74	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.42	11	-9	20	15.6	14.7	0.87	16.3	14.4	1.96
Danny Granger	73	74	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.46	8	-6	14	15.2	15.9	-0.64	15.9	16.1	-0.16
Brandon Rush	80	82	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.40	5	-3	8	15.0	18.0	-2.99	15.7	17.5	-1.74
T.J. Ford	60	62	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.53	-2	4	-6	15.9	14.4	1.45	15.6	16.5	-0.89
Jarrett Jack	79	80	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.43	1	1	0	15.4	14.9	0.53	15.7	17.2	-1.52
Roy Hibbert	32	33	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	-1	4	14.1	16.1	-1.93	14.5	16.7	-2.18
Stephen Graham	8	8	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	2	-2	14.9	15.4	-0.55	17.4	15.8	1.59
Rasho Nesterovic	30	32	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.02	-4	6	-10	14.5	15.8	-1.35	17.2	15.2	1.97
Josh McRoberts	8	7	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.06	-7	9	-16	16.7	15.2	1.51	15.9	15.9	-0.07
Maceo Baston	13	13	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	-0.04	-5	7	-12	19.2	14.7	4.50	17.4	15.7	1.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.43,0.33,0.38,0.42,0.7,0.81,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 95, MIA 103	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.46,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.53,0.68,0.71,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1	93.6%
WAS 92, BOS 100	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.6,0.57,0.65,0.62,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.58,0.69,0.88,0.82,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.98,1	93.3%
DET 87, SEA 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.46,0.36,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.59,0.85,0.86,0.86,0.95,1,1,1	92.8%