NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	95		Excitement	6.0 [594]		MVP	Brian Grant (MIA): +17.7%
Miami Heat	103		Comeback	2.5 [739]		LVP	Mitch Richmond (WAS): -17.7%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Christian Laettner	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.01	9	73%	0.13	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Chris Whitney	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	14	60%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Courtney Alexander	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.00	9	56%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jahidi White	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.01	0.01	5	82%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	-0.00
Popeye Jones	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Michael Smith	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Loy Vaught	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hubert Davis	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	12	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Nesby	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	4	10%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Mitch Richmond	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18	-0.11	-0.05	0.02	19	41%	-0.15	1	-0.03	11	91%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.04	0.10	-0.03	16	60%	0.18	1	0.00	11	73%	0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	9	67%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.02	7	67%	0.09	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.00
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.01	0.04	3	87%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	17	65%	0.19	6	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.04	-0.00	6	40%	0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Eddie Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.10	0.03	-0.03	15	57%	0.10	7	-0.15	5	40%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.8	29.2	16.5	20.0	2.4	34.5	129.6
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +54.7%

MIA +5.9%

MIA +2.7%

WAS -13.0%

WAS -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIA	NBA	WAS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.8	15.5	15.5	106.7	115.7	100.9
season	15.2	16.3		98.6	98.4
opponent	16.1	15.2		96.9	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	15.4	18.0	19.4	15.0	16.8
MIA	14.0	16.3	16.6	15.6	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Popeye Jones	26	26	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.11	5	-13	18	15.3	17.4	-2.08	16.7	15.0	1.68
Tyrone Nesby	24	22	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-8	8	17.7	16.5	1.16	16.5	15.2	1.22
Loy Vaught	10	9	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-4	0	18.1	16.7	1.44	14.8	15.6	-0.85
Jahidi White	48	47	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.01	-5	-3	-2	18.1	15.4	2.70	15.4	15.7	-0.38
Courtney Alexander	35	34	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.09	-4	-4	0	16.0	17.3	-1.30	16.3	15.1	1.22
Michael Smith	42	42	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	-4	0	17.4	16.3	1.06	15.4	15.7	-0.34
Hubert Davis	67	69	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.18	-3	-5	2	16.9	16.5	0.43	15.1	17.0	-1.88
Mitch Richmond	66	67	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.18	-8	0	-8	16.3	18.4	-2.12	15.2	16.5	-1.22
Chris Whitney	75	75	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.28	-9	1	-10	17.3	14.2	3.09	15.6	15.3	0.30
Christian Laettner	52	54	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.31	-8	0	-8	15.7	18.4	-2.67	15.4	15.8	-0.38

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Majerle	49	47	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.25	11	-3	14	16.2	14.7	1.48	16.2	17.5	-1.24
Bruce Bowen	69	69	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.31	7	1	6	15.4	16.1	-0.72	17.2	15.5	1.64
A.C. Green	30	30	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.23	6	2	4	15.8	15.4	0.34	16.0	17.2	-1.24
Brian Grant	68	67	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.20	5	3	2	15.5	15.8	-0.29	17.5	14.9	2.60
Tim Hardaway	73	75	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.16	4	4	0	15.5	15.8	-0.33	16.7	17.7	-1.06
Anthony Mason	81	82	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.06	7	1	6	15.4	17.2	-1.88	16.4	21.7	-5.31
Eddie Jones	3	3	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.05	4	4	0	13.7	15.6	-1.94	21.0	16.7	4.33
Anthony Carter	72	72	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.17	-4	12	-16	15.5	15.5	0.01	17.1	15.8	1.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.46,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.53,0.68,0.71,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 88, IND 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.43,0.33,0.38,0.42,0.7,0.81,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.92,1	93.6%
DEN 110, TOR 114	0.5,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.45,0.32,0.38,0.31,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.38,0.18,0.3,0.33,0.47,0.59,0.75,0.87,0.95,0.95,0.96,1,1	92.9%
UTA 97, PHI 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.57,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.82,0.86,0.93,0.98,0.99,1	92.1%