NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	102		Excitement	5.7 [690]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +39.9%
Atlanta Hawks	92		Comeback	1.1 [393]		LVP	Josh Smith (ATL): -19.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0.40	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.27,0.3,0.35,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.4	0.26	0.18	0.04	25	75%	0.45	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
Roger Mason Jr.	0.12	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.02	-0.01	10	82%	0.20	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.02	12	54%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.01	6	57%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Fabricio Oberto	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.02	5	67%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	56%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	7	14%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.13,0.18,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.05	0.01	23	61%	0.25	3	-0.12	3	100%	0.02
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.02	0.01	3	133%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.04	-0.01	12	62%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.01	13	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	56%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.04
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	9	32%	-0.13	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.14	-0.05	0.01	12	34%	-0.08	4	-0.12	11	55%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.6	2.5	29.6	15.6	27.0	2.5	29.3	135.1
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +49.7%

SAS +0.6%

ATL -7.2%

SAS +9.9%

ATL -3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	ATL	NBA	SAS	ATL	NBA
this game	17.7	15.6	15.5	118.6	105.7	106.4
season	16.4	15.8		106.6	106.7
opponent	16.1	15.7		106.0	103.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.8	18.5	18.0	18.7	17.7
ATL	17.0	15.1	16.3	14.0	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	69	71	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.21	19	-9	28	17.8	17.5	0.30	16.2	13.1	3.11
Matt Bonner	69	69	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.29	14	-4	18	17.8	17.2	0.66	16.0	13.9	2.15
Michael Finley	68	70	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.11	13	-3	16	17.5	18.4	-0.86	15.2	17.1	-1.89
Ime Udoka	47	48	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.23	5	5	0	17.2	18.3	-1.09	14.6	16.8	-2.22
Drew Gooden	42	43	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.15	6	4	2	18.7	16.7	2.01	16.0	15.2	0.84
Roger Mason Jr.	45	43	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	6	-2	17.8	17.6	0.28	16.1	15.1	0.93
Kurt Thomas	43	45	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	11	-12	17.8	17.7	0.12	15.2	16.1	-0.92
Fabricio Oberto	14	13	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	-0.02	-1	11	-12	15.1	18.2	-3.07	14.8	15.7	-0.97
Bruce Bowen	7	7	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.02	-3	13	-16	21.6	17.4	4.20	15.4	15.6	-0.18
Manu Ginobili	26	26	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.08	-6	16	-22	16.9	18.0	-1.13	15.4	15.7	-0.25

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zaza Pachulia	27	27	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.15	7	-17	24	15.6	15.6	-0.06	17.8	17.7	0.10
Mario West	16	15	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.02	1	-11	12	14.1	15.9	-1.80	19.6	17.3	2.29
Ronald Murray	50	51	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.25	0	-10	10	15.0	16.4	-1.45	18.2	17.0	1.20
Maurice Evans	42	42	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.02	-10	0	-10	15.8	15.4	0.46	17.1	18.2	-1.11
Mike Bibby	74	72	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.16	-9	-1	-8	15.9	13.8	2.15	17.6	18.1	-0.43
Josh Smith	72	69	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.11	-14	4	-18	15.3	16.9	-1.61	18.0	16.5	1.54
Joe Johnson	79	79	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.24	-10	0	-10	15.9	13.0	2.86	17.2	23.1	-5.92
Al Horford	75	75	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.17	-15	5	-20	15.9	13.8	2.05	17.6	18.5	-0.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.26,0.17,0.24,0.31,0.33,0.4,0.5,0.52,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.24,0.09,0.07,0.04,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 88, DET 77	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.24,0.14,0.03,0,0,0,0	93.6%
CHA 108, ORL 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.55,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.24,0.1,0.03,0.03,0,0,0	93.1%
DAL 115, POR 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.38,0.25,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.28,0.38,0.34,0.26,0.32,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.33,0.37,0.26,0.19,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.0%