NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	87		Excitement	6.2 [583]		MVP	Ronald Murray (ATL): +14.2%
Atlanta Hawks	95		Comeback	2.2 [805]		LVP	Jason Terry (DAL): -8.7%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Bass	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.04	0.01	10	45%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
James Singleton	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Carroll	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	9	65%	0.09	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.02
Antoine Wright	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.06	-0.00	15	52%	0.04	2	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	23	46%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.04
Jason Kidd	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	8	44%	-0.03	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Jason Terry	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	13	29%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.04	-0.02	12	66%	0.17	1	-0.03	5	80%	-0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.10	0.01	19	53%	0.15	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.06
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	10	52%	0.10	2	-0.05	5	20%	-0.05
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	9	56%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario West	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Acie Law	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.03	-0.00	11	54%	0.12	5	-0.15	6	50%	-0.04
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	14	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	2	67%	0.02	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.0	30.1	15.7	28.2	1.7	34.2	136.3
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +40.0%

ATL +9.9%

DAL -0.0%

DAL -4.7%

ATL +4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	ATL	NBA	DAL	ATL	NBA
this game	16.0	16.0	15.5	96.7	105.6	106.4
season	15.6	15.8		108.9	106.7
opponent	16.1	15.4		106.0	107.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.7	17.4	15.1	14.9	16.0
ATL	17.6	13.9	15.5	17.0	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Carroll	6	5	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.06	-3	-5	2	14.2	16.2	-1.99	15.2	16.0	-0.82
Jose Juan Barea	42	45	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.13	2	-10	12	17.8	14.4	3.40	16.2	15.8	0.40
Antoine Wright	59	61	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.27	6	-14	20	15.9	16.3	-0.36	16.4	15.1	1.29
Jason Kidd	75	73	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.26	2	-10	12	15.4	19.1	-3.73	16.2	14.8	1.42
Ryan Hollins	63	62	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.23	0	-8	8	16.1	15.9	0.24	16.6	14.5	2.15
Brandon Bass	28	29	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.10	-9	1	-10	15.6	16.2	-0.55	14.7	16.6	-1.95
James Singleton	32	30	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.02	-12	4	-16	16.4	15.8	0.60	15.4	16.3	-0.92
Dirk Nowitzki	82	83	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.24	-6	-2	-4	16.2	14.5	1.67	15.9	16.9	-0.95
Jason Terry	63	62	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.13	-20	12	-32	15.6	17.1	-1.56	15.5	17.0	-1.48

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronald Murray	58	60	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.07	24	-16	40	15.7	16.4	-0.71	15.5	17.0	-1.52
Al Horford	68	68	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.22	9	-1	10	16.2	15.2	0.99	16.5	14.4	2.14
Joe Johnson	81	80	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.35	-1	9	-10	16.1	14.9	1.21	16.2	14.9	1.26
Josh Smith	78	77	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.33	-1	9	-10	16.1	15.2	0.84	16.2	15.2	1.01
Zaza Pachulia	34	35	0.21	0.29	-0.07	-0.02	8	0	8	15.2	16.4	-1.19	14.7	16.9	-2.19
Maurice Evans	59	58	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.09	4	4	0	15.6	16.8	-1.21	16.8	14.6	2.17
Mike Bibby	61	61	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.36	-7	15	-22	17.1	13.7	3.43	15.8	16.4	-0.63
Mario West	9	9	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.09	6	2	4	11.1	16.5	-5.41	14.9	16.1	-1.26
Acie Law	2	2	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.01	-2	10	-12	19.0	15.9	3.09	14.5	16.1	-1.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.47,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.73,0.76,0.83,0.89,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.71,0.71,0.83,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.88,0.84,0.9,0.9,0.94,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 91, LAL 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.34,0.35,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.77,0.82,0.78,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.79,0.81,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.75,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.78,0.7,0.68,0.83,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.9,0.86,0.95,0.99,1,1	94.0%
MIL 123, OKC 131	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.91,0.9,0.85,0.75,0.79,0.73,0.63,0.71,0.66,0.74,0.85,0.83,0.93,0.98,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.98,1,1	93.5%
CLE 120, GSW 129	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.48,0.39,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.51,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.61,0.71,0.78,0.86,0.87,0.89,0.8,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.8,0.75,0.73,0.67,0.79,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.89,0.84,0.86,0.91,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	93.5%