NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	127		Excitement	15.5 [2]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +89.7%
Miami Heat	130		Comeback	14.5 [105]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -42.2%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0.37	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.31,0.61,0.61,0.79,0.79,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.48,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.34,0.37,0.37	0.25	0.11	-0.00	23	80%	0.75	5	-0.39	8	87%	0.03
John Salmons	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.31,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17	-0.01	0.16	-0.01	24	51%	0.54	5	-0.38	9	89%	0.19
Kirk Hinrich	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.00	3	80%	0.11	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Tyrus Thomas	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	0.01	-0.00	5	40%	0.03	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	8	45%	-0.03	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	0.03	-0.13	0.02	5	61%	-0.10	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.16
Derrick Rose	-0.42	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.28,-0.37,-0.38,-0.38,-0.38,-0.34,-0.42,-0.42	-0.10	-0.33	-0.01	25	43%	-0.26	4	-0.16	4	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.14,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.36,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.9	0.90	0.29	0.64	0.03	21	80%	1.14	5	-0.24	18	72%	-0.13
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.14	0.19	0.01	9	77%	0.32	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Jamario Moon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.06	0.01	10	65%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	7	14%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.11	-0.05	9	52%	0.01	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.01
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.02,0.02,-0.08,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.13	-0.02	16	47%	0.01	2	-0.13	6	100%	0.06
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	11	36%	-0.03	1	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,-0.05,-0.2	-0.20	-0.06	-0.14	-0.00	8	45%	-0.14	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	25.4	2.4	34.2	14.8	31.4	2.5	37.5	2.3	22.4	2.5	18.7	194.2
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	2.0	41.4	2.0	41.4	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +49.8%

CHI -14.8%

CHI -17.1%

MIA +39.0%

CHI -6.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	14.9	16.2	15.5	111.4	118.2	106.4
season	14.8	16.0		106.3	105.9
opponent	15.7	15.7		105.7	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CHI	14.8	14.0	15.2	17.4	13.2	14.9
MIA	15.8	16.7	16.1	17.7	14.7	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kirk Hinrich	39	39	0.19	-0.69	0.89	-0.19	13	-16	29	13.5	15.6	-2.18	15.7	16.5	-0.71
Tyrus Thomas	44	41	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.07	4	-7	11	14.7	15.0	-0.38	17.2	15.6	1.63
Brad Miller	90	87	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	0	-3	14.4	16.6	-2.14	16.1	16.6	-0.52
Ben Gordon	98	94	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.48	1	-4	5	15.0	14.4	0.60	16.1	16.9	-0.86
John Salmons	105	102	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.44	-6	3	-9	15.0	13.9	1.09	16.1	16.9	-0.73
Derrick Rose	110	106	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.33	-12	9	-21	14.9	15.2	-0.37	15.9	23.5	-7.58
Joakim Noah	84	82	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.42	-12	9	-21	16.0	11.9	4.11	16.4	15.5	0.89

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Beasley	65	64	1.01	-0.51	1.53	0.72	10	-7	17	16.5	15.8	0.68	13.5	16.6	-3.07
Jamario Moon	72	74	0.85	-0.35	1.21	0.47	13	-10	23	14.9	18.6	-3.71	14.6	15.3	-0.70
Dwyane Wade	95	99	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.26	20	-17	37	15.8	18.9	-3.09	14.8	15.3	-0.43
Udonis Haslem	86	90	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.13	14	-11	25	15.8	17.7	-1.93	15.3	13.5	1.77
Mario Chalmers	66	70	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.19	6	-3	9	16.6	15.6	1.05	15.1	14.6	0.49
Daequan Cook	58	60	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.45	-11	14	-25	16.5	15.9	0.60	15.4	14.3	1.10
James Jones	26	27	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.06	-7	10	-17	17.6	15.8	1.85	13.7	15.3	-1.51
Joel Anthony	9	9	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.09	-10	13	-23	19.8	15.9	3.90	15.9	14.8	1.08
Chris Quinn	18	18	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.11	-12	15	-27	17.0	16.0	0.96	14.4	15.0	-0.53
Jermaine O'Neal	55	59	-0.65	1.15	-1.80	-0.42	-8	11	-19	16.6	15.8	0.84	15.9	13.8	2.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.36,0.23,0.27,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.26,0.28,0.41,0.51,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.67,0.58,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.78,0.89,0.87,0.81,0.75,0.8,0.68,0.74,0.59,0.71,0.64,0.21,0.32,0.27,0.46,0.67,0.46,0.57,0.72,0.46,0.39,0.55,0.85,0.59,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 86, CHA 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.36,0.35,0.46,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.68,0.65,0.76,0.66,0.81,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.72,0.59,0.6,0.47,0.62,0.28,0.14,0.16,0	85.6%
POR 108, LAL 103	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.31,0.34,0.43,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.22,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.76,0.29,0.22,0.17,0	85.4%
SAS 94, DAL 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.71,0.76,0.83,0.88,0.89,0.89,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.87,0.71,0.66,0.4,0.21,0.1,0.1,0	85.3%