NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	94		Excitement	8.7 [153]		MVP	Antonio McDyess (DET): +10.7%
Detroit Pistons	98		Comeback	2.7 [344]		LVP	Rafer Alston (ORL): -15.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Courtney Lee	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.03	0.00	5	77%	0.10	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Rashard Lewis	0.10	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.15,0.1	0.04	0.07	0.00	14	70%	0.32	5	-0.22	2	100%	0.01
Mickael Pietrus	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	3	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.01,0.02	0.12	-0.07	0.03	14	66%	0.09	2	-0.07	13	69%	-0.15
Anthony Johnson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	0.00	7	56%	0.08	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Marcin Gortat	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.05	0.00	3	55%	-0.02	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.03
JJ Redick	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	5	56%	0.03	3	-0.10	6	100%	0.04
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15	-0.06	-0.11	-0.01	10	29%	-0.15	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.10	-0.00	12	48%	0.14	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.05
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.28,0.21,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	-0.05	-0.01	16	62%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Walter Herrmann	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.05	-0.00	8	41%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	40%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.07	-0.05	0.04	6	67%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.16
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.18,-0.18,-0.02,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	25	48%	0.02	2	-0.07	11	82%	-0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	-0.02	-0.05	12	38%	0.05	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	1.7	31.3	16.8	26.2	2.7	40.5	147.2
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +0.3%

ORL -21.7%

DET +38.8%

DET +33.1%

ORL -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DET	NBA	ORL	DET	NBA
this game	13.7	18.4	15.5	105.6	108.9	106.4
season	15.3	16.9		107.3	104.9
opponent	15.7	15.8		106.2	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.5	13.5	13.7	15.4	13.7
DET	18.0	20.8	16.9	18.1	18.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Courtney Lee	33	34	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.01	2	-6	8	12.8	14.3	-1.42	20.7	17.0	3.74
Anthony Johnson	29	30	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.15	0	-4	4	16.0	12.6	3.40	15.6	19.8	-4.22
Hedo Turkoglu	36	37	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.14	-11	7	-18	13.7	13.7	0.01	19.3	17.8	1.55
Mickael Pietrus	39	40	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.36	4	-8	12	13.9	13.6	0.28	16.0	20.3	-4.29
Marcin Gortat	44	44	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.32	2	-6	8	15.0	12.5	2.44	18.5	18.3	0.26
Rafer Alston	60	60	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.24	-4	0	-4	12.6	16.0	-3.40	19.8	15.6	4.22
Dwight Howard	74	74	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.34	-2	-2	0	13.1	16.7	-3.52	18.5	18.1	0.42
Rashard Lewis	74	75	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.26	-5	1	-6	13.5	14.9	-1.35	19.1	15.1	4.01
JJ Redick	56	56	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.40	-6	2	-8	14.3	12.8	1.42	17.0	20.7	-3.74

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	73	73	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.42	12	-8	20	18.2	19.5	-1.31	14.2	11.5	2.73
Richard Hamilton	77	75	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.33	10	-6	16	18.0	21.0	-3.03	13.8	13.2	0.63
Rodney Stuckey	64	63	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.31	5	-1	6	19.3	16.2	3.17	12.8	16.0	-3.19
Tayshaun Prince	72	71	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.23	5	-1	6	19.9	12.6	7.32	13.3	15.4	-2.13
Kwame Brown	48	47	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.26	3	1	2	19.9	16.7	3.14	13.2	14.3	-1.08
Rasheed Wallace	22	21	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.00	2	2	0	18.6	18.4	0.24	13.2	13.9	-0.66
Will Bynum	26	26	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.07	-1	5	-6	16.2	19.3	-3.17	16.0	12.8	3.19
Walter Herrmann	31	32	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.20	-7	11	-18	16.1	19.6	-3.53	14.5	13.3	1.14
Jason Maxiell	37	37	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.09	-9	13	-22	16.9	19.5	-2.58	13.7	13.8	-0.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.68,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.63,0.64,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 95, DET 102	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.59,0.48,0.55,0.67,0.74,0.74,0.62,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.41,0.4,0.53,0.36,0.45,0.91,1	92.0%
LAC 98, SEA 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.41,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.75,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.4,0.27,0.45,0.55,0.36,0.85,1	91.6%
UTA 84, PHX 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.38,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.54,0.29,0.45,0.37,0.68,0.92,1	91.2%