NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	102		Excitement	6.1 [607]		MVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): +17.3%
Chicago Bulls	105		Comeback	399.0 [2]		LVP	Metta World Peace (HOU): -10.7%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	5	83%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shane Battier	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.02	-0.05	6	50%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	14	52%	0.06	1	-0.01	5	100%	0.02
Von Wafer	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	11	46%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	9	38%	0.05	3	-0.11	3	100%	0.02
Brent Barry	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.09	0.00	-0.10	-0.01	10	73%	0.02	5	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Metta World Peace	-0.11	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.21,0.15,-0.11	0.12	-0.21	0.02	24	67%	-0.00	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.05	0.15	0.02	13	55%	0.18	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.02
Derrick Rose	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,0.14	0.14	0.00	0.16	0.02	21	48%	0.18	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	7	69%	0.10	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.02	16	54%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02
Joakim Noah	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	7	56%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	9	39%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	11	50%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	7	40%	-0.02	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.3	25.5	16.4	26.2	2.5	34.4	132.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +22.2%

HOU -0.9%

CHI +14.0%

CHI +17.3%

HOU -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	CHI	NBA	HOU	CHI	NBA
this game	17.1	13.3	15.5	108.5	110.5	106.4
season	16.3	14.8		105.9	106.3
opponent	15.7	15.2		107.2	102.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.7	15.9	16.6	19.5	17.1
CHI	14.7	11.8	16.1	11.3	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brent Barry	18	18	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	1	-5	15.7	17.5	-1.83	12.2	13.6	-1.46
Aaron Brooks	65	66	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.05	-4	1	-5	18.2	14.9	3.31	14.6	10.6	4.02
Luis Scola	80	80	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.33	4	-7	11	17.0	17.9	-0.83	13.4	12.8	0.65
Yao Ming	63	65	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.41	2	-5	7	17.3	16.8	0.46	14.6	10.5	4.11
Kyle Lowry	35	35	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.23	-5	2	-7	16.0	17.8	-1.88	11.3	14.5	-3.17
Von Wafer	49	49	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.09	-10	7	-17	16.8	17.6	-0.82	11.6	15.2	-3.54
Metta World Peace	83	85	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.43	-1	-2	1	17.1	17.5	-0.35	13.4	12.7	0.72
Shane Battier	77	77	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.55	3	-6	9	17.5	15.7	1.76	13.3	13.6	-0.33

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joakim Noah	67	65	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.36	13	-10	23	12.4	15.6	-3.15	17.9	15.4	2.51
Brad Miller	57	57	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.55	6	-3	9	12.7	14.3	-1.66	16.7	17.9	-1.23
Ben Gordon	56	55	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.47	7	-4	11	13.0	13.8	-0.80	18.0	16.0	1.96
John Salmons	79	77	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.52	-2	5	-7	13.3	13.5	-0.18	16.5	20.1	-3.62
Derrick Rose	80	77	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.45	0	3	-3	13.3	13.8	-0.54	17.2	16.7	0.54
Luol Deng	30	32	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.06	5	-2	7	12.7	13.6	-0.95	17.3	17.1	0.25
Tim Thomas	14	15	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.01	0	3	-3	13.5	13.3	0.18	16.1	17.4	-1.29
Kirk Hinrich	40	41	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.15	-1	4	-5	14.5	12.5	2.03	17.0	17.3	-0.31
Tyrus Thomas	52	51	-0.46	0.96	-1.42	-0.08	-13	16	-29	15.2	11.1	4.16	17.0	17.3	-0.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.45,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.31,0.24,0.16,0.2,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 82, POR 84	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.27,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.33,0.24,0.19,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.09,0.41,1	93.2%
LAC 98, DAL 100	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.41,0.35,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.42,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.25,0.27,0.23,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.23,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.05,0.28,1	93.1%
NJN 101, ATL 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.15,0.22,0.14,0.42,1	92.6%