NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	109		Excitement	5.8 [679]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +20.8%
Denver Nuggets	110		Comeback	2.2 [952]		LVP	Ronald Murray (ATL): -23.7%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marvin Williams	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13	0.21	-0.02	0.05	17	70%	0.18	1	-0.04	10	100%	0.05
Joe Johnson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04	0.08	-0.00	0.04	18	62%	0.12	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.03
Al Horford	0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	17	58%	0.09	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	3	90%	0.07	3	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Acie Law	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	4	20%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Solomon Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario West	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	-0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.24	-0.02	-0.21	0.01	12	58%	-0.13	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.12	0.05	-0.03	16	68%	0.23	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Chauncey Billups	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.03	-0.01	18	60%	0.23	4	-0.09	19	89%	0.07
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.02	-0.01	8	64%	0.11	0	0.00	6	67%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.00	0.02	6	83%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.02	6	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	10	50%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	3	83%	0.05	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.13	-0.01	-0.03	3	0%	-0.04	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	7	41%	-0.00	3	-0.11	3	33%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	35.6	16.4	25.6	2.5	34.8	141.6
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +50.4%

ATL -5.4%

DEN +2.0%

ATL -6.6%

DEN +9.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	DEN	NBA	ATL	DEN	NBA
this game	16.0	15.5	15.5	118.5	120.9	106.4
season	15.8	14.4		106.7	109.5
opponent	15.7	16.1		105.2	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.8	17.0	16.8	13.5	16.0
DEN	15.2	13.6	16.7	16.5	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Acie Law	15	14	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.15	11	-12	23	15.2	16.2	-0.96	16.2	15.3	0.88
Solomon Jones	12	12	0.15	-0.65	0.81	-0.05	7	-8	15	16.7	15.9	0.77	16.1	15.4	0.70
Maurice Evans	62	62	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.45	7	-8	15	15.0	18.0	-2.97	15.2	16.1	-0.88
Mario West	14	13	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.05	-11	10	-21	17.9	15.7	2.27	14.2	15.7	-1.54
Marvin Williams	75	74	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.41	3	-4	7	15.5	18.1	-2.60	15.6	14.8	0.80
Al Horford	78	77	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.47	3	-4	7	15.4	19.3	-3.88	15.3	16.2	-0.88
Zaza Pachulia	43	42	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.03	-13	12	-25	18.0	14.3	3.67	15.8	15.2	0.63
Joe Johnson	85	85	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.48	-3	2	-5	16.1	14.9	1.24	15.6	14.2	1.40
Ronald Murray	76	76	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.36	-9	8	-17	16.4	14.3	2.04	15.4	15.9	-0.47

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenyon Martin	68	69	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.40	7	-6	13	15.6	15.0	0.69	16.4	14.7	1.80
Chauncey Billups	70	72	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.40	6	-5	11	15.8	14.3	1.48	17.0	12.5	4.47
Carmelo Anthony	86	87	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.50	2	-1	3	15.7	12.0	3.67	16.0	16.2	-0.21
J.R. Smith	52	51	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.06	10	-9	19	14.7	16.5	-1.87	15.6	16.5	-0.84
Linas Kleiza	41	41	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.19	2	-1	3	15.0	15.8	-0.82	15.6	16.3	-0.70
Johan Petro	31	32	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	-2	5	16.2	15.1	1.09	17.1	15.4	1.63
Dahntay Jones	35	36	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	-2	5	16.1	15.1	0.95	17.5	15.0	2.51
Chris Andersen	42	42	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.28	-10	11	-21	15.1	15.8	-0.70	14.8	17.0	-2.15
Anthony Carter	30	30	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.39	-18	19	-37	14.8	15.8	-1.00	12.5	17.7	-5.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.48,0.49,0.59,0.7,0.81,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.87,0.93,0.95,0.9,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 112, WAS 124	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.49,0.56,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.89,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%
LAC 98, SAC 110	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.37,0.36,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.7,0.76,0.84,0.87,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.9%
NJN 94, IND 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.45,0.45,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.75,0.81,0.77,0.83,0.81,0.9,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.85,0.92,0.87,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.89,0.96,0.96,0.85,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,1	93.8%