NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	76		Excitement	4.2 [991]		MVP	Michael Finley (SAS): +11.0%
San Antonio Spurs	93		Comeback	1.1 [990]		LVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): -8.6%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Singleton	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.02	10	64%	0.07	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Matt Carroll	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	-0.00	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	17	43%	0.02	1	-0.02	10	80%	0.02
Devean George	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	15	46%	-0.01	1	-0.03	5	40%	-0.02
Antoine Wright	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	10	36%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Erick Dampier	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	17%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	15	41%	-0.06	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.15	0.02	0.06	9	89%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.02	0.01	7	71%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.02	-0.02	32	51%	0.08	2	-0.03	8	87%	0.01
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	11	46%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Hairston	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	5	43%	-0.00	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.02	-0.03	10	32%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.5	28.4	16.4	24.3	2.4	28.6	128.0
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +47.3%

DAL -6.7%

DAL -0.8%

SAS +8.1%

SAS +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	16.2	16.5	15.5	86.4	105.7	106.4
season	15.6	16.4		108.9	106.6
opponent	15.7	15.4		103.2	107.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.1	16.2	17.7	15.1	16.2
SAS	16.6	18.1	17.4	14.3	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Carroll	10	10	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.01	0	-17	17	13.7	16.6	-2.86	16.0	16.6	-0.55
Devean George	16	17	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.00	-2	-15	13	17.2	16.0	1.16	18.5	16.0	2.53
Brandon Bass	23	23	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.10	-8	-9	1	16.1	16.3	-0.15	16.2	16.6	-0.37
Jose Juan Barea	48	48	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-16	15	15.7	16.9	-1.21	17.2	15.6	1.58
Erick Dampier	16	17	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.08	-9	-8	-1	17.2	16.0	1.24	16.4	16.5	-0.10
James Singleton	63	64	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	-13	9	15.8	17.4	-1.57	16.6	16.2	0.39
Antoine Wright	55	54	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.01	-10	-7	-3	17.0	14.9	2.13	16.5	16.5	-0.07
Dirk Nowitzki	74	72	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.07	-13	-4	-9	16.4	15.2	1.22	16.5	16.4	0.06
Josh Howard	70	69	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.07	-19	2	-21	16.0	17.3	-1.31	16.0	18.2	-2.20
Jason Kidd	65	66	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	0.06	-19	2	-21	16.4	15.7	0.68	16.0	17.9	-1.83

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	68	67	0.65	-0.15	0.80	-0.14	27	-10	37	16.4	16.9	-0.53	16.9	14.2	2.63
Matt Bonner	57	59	0.49	0.01	0.47	-0.34	28	-11	39	16.1	17.2	-1.09	17.3	14.1	3.24
Kurt Thomas	52	53	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.20	20	-3	23	17.0	15.8	1.20	17.1	15.0	2.06
Michael Finley	68	69	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.02	14	3	11	16.9	14.9	1.99	16.6	14.9	1.71
Fabricio Oberto	49	47	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.27	-1	18	-19	16.5	16.5	-0.04	15.4	17.2	-1.75
Roger Mason Jr.	56	56	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.03	5	12	-7	16.9	15.7	1.16	15.5	17.5	-1.98
Ime Udoka	29	27	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.17	0	17	-17	16.3	16.6	-0.32	16.4	16.1	0.30
Bruce Bowen	24	25	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.17	-4	21	-25	15.7	16.8	-1.02	14.3	17.0	-2.74
George Hill	28	28	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.05	-2	19	-21	15.9	16.8	-0.87	15.2	16.7	-1.55
Malik Hairston	9	9	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	19	-21	15.6	16.6	-1.04	13.8	16.5	-2.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.7,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.89,0.9,0.93,0.88,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 102, UTA 112	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.72,0.77,0.71,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.71,0.63,0.75,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.84,0.85,0.78,0.82,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
PHI 74, IND 81	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.68,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
UTA 101, LAL 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.75,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.89,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%