NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	112		Excitement	6.0 [628]		MVP	Chris Paul (NOH): +22.4%
Sacramento Kings	105		Comeback	1.0 [1172]		LVP	Spencer Hawes (SAC): -11.2%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.23,0.22	0.09	0.14	0.00	19	61%	0.25	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
James Posey	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.05	-0.00	7	81%	0.17	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Tyson Chandler	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.02	0.11	0.00	6	79%	0.28	5	-0.15	7	71%	0.01
Peja Stojakovic	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	14	55%	0.08	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
David West	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.03	19	50%	0.10	1	-0.04	10	80%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.00	0.02	9	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio Daniels	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,0.01,-0.02,0.08,0.04,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.09	0.15	0.03	21	58%	0.27	3	-0.07	13	77%	0.03
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.02	-0.02	11	76%	0.17	4	-0.05	3	33%	-0.03
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	3	90%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.01	0.01	11	65%	0.09	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Cedric Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donte Greene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	7	50%	0.03	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Rashad McCants	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	0.02	6	36%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Spencer Hawes	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	12	48%	-0.05	3	-0.07	3	33%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.3	33.4	15.4	23.4	2.4	32.5	136.7
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +48.6%

SAC -7.0%

NOH +6.8%

SAC -2.1%

NOH +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	SAC	NBA	NOH	SAC	NBA
this game	15.9	14.9	15.5	119.1	112.9	106.4
season	16.6	15.0		105.9	104.0
opponent	15.1	15.6		112.7	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	16.5	13.7	15.9	17.9	15.9
SAC	13.5	14.0	18.4	14.0	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyson Chandler	60	60	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.24	16	-9	25	15.6	16.5	-0.92	15.8	13.1	2.73
Chris Paul	75	74	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.35	12	-5	17	16.1	15.4	0.68	15.5	12.5	3.03
Peja Stojakovic	75	75	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.33	12	-5	17	15.8	16.3	-0.44	15.3	13.0	2.33
David West	84	84	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.27	7	0	7	16.2	13.8	2.37	15.2	12.2	2.94
James Posey	56	55	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.28	0	7	-7	16.6	15.0	1.58	13.7	16.6	-2.91
Devin Brown	13	13	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	6	-5	14.4	16.2	-1.78	14.0	15.0	-1.03
Rasual Butler	54	52	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.05	1	6	-5	15.4	16.7	-1.32	15.2	14.4	0.84
Antonio Daniels	19	19	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.05	-5	12	-17	15.4	16.1	-0.68	12.5	15.5	-3.03
Sean Marks	34	33	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	0.05	-9	16	-25	16.5	15.6	0.92	13.1	15.8	-2.73

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Thompson	21	21	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.02	-3	-4	1	18.8	13.7	5.01	15.4	16.1	-0.63
Donte Greene	9	9	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.02	-3	-4	1	13.9	15.0	-1.10	14.7	16.0	-1.38
Rashad McCants	20	20	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.02	-2	-5	3	12.8	15.5	-2.65	16.2	15.8	0.43
Cedric Simmons	13	13	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.08	-8	1	-9	14.0	15.0	-1.03	13.0	16.4	-3.38
Bobby Jackson	45	43	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.14	-2	-5	3	14.6	15.2	-0.59	16.1	15.8	0.29
Spencer Hawes	80	81	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.37	1	-8	9	15.0	14.0	1.03	16.4	13.0	3.38
Kevin Martin	74	75	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.24	-4	-3	-1	15.2	13.6	1.64	15.8	16.4	-0.57
Andres Nocioni	63	64	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.34	-1	-6	5	13.7	17.3	-3.57	16.2	15.2	1.05
Francisco Garcia	82	83	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.32	-4	-3	-1	15.0	13.7	1.31	16.3	13.2	3.10
Beno Udrih	58	61	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.17	-9	2	-11	15.2	14.4	0.82	15.3	17.0	-1.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.32,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.27,0.2,0.23,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.27,0.24,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.16,0.1,0.08,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.43,0.28,0.42,0.26,0.29,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 100, UTA 95	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.37,0.28,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.16,0.17,0.21,0.16,0.21,0.1,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.29,0.27,0.1,0.24,0.17,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.05,0	93.7%
POR 95, IND 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.15,0.23,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.22,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.22,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0	93.6%
IND 93, WAS 80	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.2,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.22,0.27,0.21,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.25,0.19,0.3,0.21,0.33,0.47,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.11,0.02,0,0,0	93.4%