NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	111		Excitement	9.6 [81]		MVP	Rasual Butler (NOH): +45.7%
Los Angeles Lakers	115		Comeback	27.0 [63]		LVP	David West (NOH): -24.0%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasual Butler	0.46	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.46	0.24	0.27	0.05	20	72%	0.46	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
James Posey	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.22	0.03	0.18	-0.01	14	57%	0.28	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Hilton Armstrong	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.00	4	100%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Ely	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	6	43%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Paul	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.03	-0.09	-0.00	16	57%	0.06	3	-0.12	5	100%	0.05
Peja Stojakovic	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	11	23%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	4	30%	-0.03	2	-0.11	2	50%	-0.03
David West	-0.24	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23,-0.24	-0.09	-0.13	0.02	14	48%	-0.06	6	-0.18	5	80%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.03,-0.1,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.24	0.24	0.03	0.22	0.00	10	54%	0.34	1	-0.10	6	100%	0.07
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.12,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.07,0,-0.02,0.02,0.23	0.23	0.11	0.12	-0.00	30	54%	0.40	2	-0.17	12	100%	0.07
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	14	62%	0.12	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Josh Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.03	-0.03	5	20%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Walton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.09	-0.06	0.01	7	82%	0.06	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Shannon Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	6	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	11	41%	0.01	2	-0.04	7	57%	0.00
Sasha Vujacic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.1	2.7	31.2	19.8	28.0	3.8	34.1	2.5	19.2	167.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	2.0	41.4	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH -5.4%

LAL +22.0%

LAL +20.7%

LAL +6.5%

LAL +6.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	LAL	NBA	NOH	LAL	NBA
this game	15.1	14.2	15.5	101.8	106.5	106.4
season	16.6	14.9		105.9	110.6
opponent	15.4	15.6		102.6	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
NOH	17.7	12.3	16.0	15.4	14.2	15.1
LAL	12.9	14.9	14.6	15.2	11.7	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Melvin Ely	17	18	0.25	-0.75	1.00	-0.10	12	-16	28	12.5	15.6	-3.16	17.1	13.6	3.47
Devin Brown	18	16	0.22	-0.72	0.93	-0.08	10	-14	24	11.8	15.8	-3.96	16.8	13.7	3.11
Antonio Daniels	20	19	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.15	11	-15	26	10.7	16.1	-5.37	14.4	14.1	0.24
James Posey	71	70	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.46	16	-20	36	14.3	16.6	-2.29	13.9	14.6	-0.68
Sean Marks	64	62	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.19	0	-4	4	15.3	14.9	0.35	13.5	15.0	-1.45
Hilton Armstrong	29	29	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.07	-12	8	-20	17.2	14.4	2.87	15.6	13.6	1.99
David West	100	99	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.36	-8	4	-12	15.3	12.8	2.57	13.9	17.0	-3.09
Peja Stojakovic	59	58	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.24	-14	10	-24	15.8	14.3	1.47	13.6	14.9	-1.33
Chris Paul	89	89	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.23	-15	11	-26	16.1	10.7	5.37	14.1	14.4	-0.24
Rasual Butler	78	80	-0.76	0.26	-1.03	-0.18	-20	16	-36	15.5	14.2	1.36	13.9	14.9	-0.98

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Walton	69	69	1.04	-0.54	1.58	0.31	25	-21	46	13.5	15.4	-1.87	15.7	14.1	1.56
Derek Fisher	74	76	0.97	-0.47	1.44	0.27	24	-20	44	13.6	15.3	-1.69	16.2	12.8	3.41
Kobe Bryant	92	92	0.83	-0.33	1.15	0.27	19	-15	34	13.5	18.1	-4.57	15.6	12.4	3.23
Lamar Odom	92	92	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.26	19	-15	34	13.6	17.2	-3.62	15.6	12.4	3.23
Pau Gasol	99	100	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.34	8	-4	12	14.1	14.9	-0.79	15.1	15.9	-0.82
Shannon Brown	7	7	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	6	-8	15.9	14.0	1.81	13.9	15.2	-1.37
Sasha Vujacic	16	17	-0.33	0.83	-1.15	0.11	-15	19	-34	18.1	13.5	4.57	12.4	15.6	-3.23
Jordan Farmar	27	26	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	0.13	-18	22	-40	15.2	13.8	1.36	12.5	16.0	-3.51
Josh Powell	24	26	-0.40	0.90	-1.31	0.15	-19	23	-42	17.1	13.3	3.75	13.6	15.6	-2.00
Trevor Ariza	40	40	-0.53	1.03	-1.56	0.08	-21	25	-46	15.0	13.7	1.28	14.1	15.7	-1.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.76,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.82,0.87,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.75,0.81,0.67,0.55,0.28,0.23,0.08,0.46,0.61,0.71,0.86,0.93,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 92, UTA 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.75,0.83,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.69,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.72,0.68,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.47,0.36,0.23,0.27,0.46,0.55,0.63,0.91,0.97,1	89.7%
CHI 102, DET 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.65,0.58,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.63,0.7,0.64,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.79,0.88,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.9,0.88,0.75,0.73,0.64,0.59,0.39,0.62,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.75,0.84,0.97,1,1	88.2%
LAL 93, UTA 98	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.57,0.61,0.73,0.68,0.75,0.75,0.81,0.79,0.82,0.88,0.84,0.83,0.77,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.67,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.65,0.68,0.47,0.29,0.23,0.42,0.46,0.69,0.79,0.77,0.87,1	87.3%