NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	99		Excitement	6.1 [609]		MVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): +29.6%
Detroit Pistons	95		Comeback	2.4 [282]		LVP	Mike Bibby (ATL): -8.7%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0.30	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.3	0.16	0.13	-0.01	16	71%	0.31	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.04
Ronald Murray	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.25	0.11	0.14	0.00	18	59%	0.25	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Marvin Williams	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	-0.01	-0.04	9	55%	0.11	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Maurice Evans	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	2	67%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Al Horford	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	11	58%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Josh Smith	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	12	38%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Mike Bibby	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	5	42%	-0.00	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Allen Iverson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.07	0.03	20	61%	0.18	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.07
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	5	77%	0.12	2	-0.08	3	67%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	11	50%	0.08	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	8	56%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	16	41%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	10	46%	-0.04	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.8	27.2	17.7	23.1	2.5	38.5	136.1
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +30.9%

ATL +17.6%

DET -11.1%

ATL +15.2%

DET -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	DET	NBA	ATL	DET	NBA
this game	16.7	16.6	15.5	115.1	109.2	106.4
season	15.8	16.9		106.7	104.9
opponent	15.7	16.1		106.2	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.5	15.6	17.5	17.2	16.7
DET	15.6	17.1	20.4	14.1	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	62	62	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.44	6	-2	8	16.7	16.6	0.05	17.3	15.0	2.23
Ronald Murray	50	51	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.19	12	-8	20	17.3	15.8	1.52	15.8	17.7	-1.91
Mike Bibby	68	69	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.30	5	-1	6	16.4	17.6	-1.20	17.1	14.7	2.48
Joe Johnson	67	68	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.33	4	0	4	16.9	15.8	1.05	17.2	14.5	2.69
Al Horford	60	61	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.24	2	2	0	16.6	16.9	-0.32	17.6	14.3	3.26
Maurice Evans	31	34	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	3	-2	15.6	17.3	-1.69	14.0	18.3	-4.27
Zaza Pachulia	33	32	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.17	-3	7	-10	17.2	16.3	0.94	14.5	17.9	-3.32
Marvin Williams	61	60	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.15	-7	11	-18	16.0	18.4	-2.39	16.6	16.6	0.00

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Maxiell	32	31	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.08	2	-6	8	16.3	16.8	-0.46	15.9	17.1	-1.14
Rasheed Wallace	45	43	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.04	-4	0	-4	17.5	15.7	1.73	16.6	16.7	-0.07
Amir Johnson	35	35	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.10	-1	-3	2	18.5	15.3	3.20	17.2	16.3	0.86
Arron Afflalo	21	21	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.05	-3	-1	-2	15.2	17.1	-1.90	14.3	17.4	-3.15
Richard Hamilton	57	57	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.31	2	-6	8	15.1	19.5	-4.43	16.6	16.8	-0.25
Allen Iverson	72	71	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.33	-3	-1	-2	16.4	17.5	-1.09	16.9	15.4	1.53
Tayshaun Prince	70	68	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.33	-3	-1	-2	16.6	16.8	-0.16	17.0	15.6	1.40
Antonio McDyess	50	50	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.35	-4	0	-4	16.3	17.1	-0.73	17.1	16.1	1.00
Rodney Stuckey	53	54	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.40	-6	2	-8	17.6	15.1	2.58	16.7	16.6	0.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.4,0.29,0.19,0.3,0.3,0.2,0.28,0.31,0.41,0.22,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 92, CHA 83	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.3,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.24,0.12,0.26,0.24,0.18,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.02,0	94.1%
NOH 99, TOR 84	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.5,0.53,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.39,0.34,0.16,0.21,0.24,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.34,0.14,0.01,0,0,0	93.0%
DAL 92, SAS 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.74,0.69,0.71,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.15,0.15,0.08,0	92.9%