NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	107		Excitement	2.6 [1235]		MVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): +10.7%
New Orleans Hornets	93		Comeback	1.1 [611]		LVP	Melvin Ely (NOH): -8.3%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.00	-0.02	13	68%	0.12	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Joakim Noah	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.00	-0.01	9	70%	0.10	1	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01
Andres Nocioni	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.01	-0.04	9	65%	0.08	2	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Derrick Rose	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.11	0.00	0.04	14	70%	0.10	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tyrus Thomas	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.02	7	75%	0.06	2	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Aaron Gray	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	-0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.08	0.00	-0.06	5	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	0.00	0.03	9	54%	-0.01	2	-0.02	6	83%	0.00

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.02	0.00	-0.08	12	53%	0.09	4	-0.03	8	100%	0.01
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.11	-0.00	0.07	14	73%	0.08	3	-0.05	5	100%	0.01
David West	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	17	53%	0.04	1	-0.02	11	91%	0.02
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	4	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Julian Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	6	41%	-0.01	3	-0.02	5	100%	0.01
Hilton Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	3	33%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	9	28%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	-0.00	-0.03	7	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.5	29.7	15.8	29.2	2.4	38.7	141.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +46.5%

NOH -4.8%

NOH -0.2%

CHI +9.0%

NOH -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	NOH	NBA	CHI	NOH	NBA
this game	15.4	16.2	15.5	117.6	102.2	106.4
season	14.8	16.6		106.3	105.9
opponent	15.6	15.7		106.0	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.6	13.2	18.8	14.7	15.4
NOH	18.7	18.1	16.4	12.4	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	73	73	0.60	-0.10	0.69	-0.14	25	-11	36	14.9	17.5	-2.60	16.8	13.9	2.85
Derrick Rose	67	66	0.47	0.03	0.43	-0.06	18	-4	22	14.9	16.9	-2.04	17.0	14.3	2.69
Ben Gordon	69	69	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.30	4	10	-6	15.6	15.0	0.55	16.9	14.3	2.58
Joakim Noah	72	72	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.06	12	2	10	15.4	15.4	-0.00	16.1	16.8	-0.71
Tyrus Thomas	57	58	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.02	10	4	6	15.4	15.5	-0.08	17.1	14.6	2.50
Andres Nocioni	38	36	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.16	1	13	-12	15.7	15.2	0.50	15.3	16.8	-1.53
Kirk Hinrich	46	47	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.06	6	8	-2	16.0	14.8	1.18	14.3	18.3	-4.04
Aaron Gray	12	12	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.07	5	9	-4	15.3	15.4	-0.10	18.3	15.9	2.42
Thabo Sefolosha	21	22	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.24	-11	25	-36	16.8	15.0	1.81	12.8	17.3	-4.50

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean Marks	6	6	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-13	12	6.5	16.9	-10.42	11.7	15.7	-4.02
Julian Wright	24	23	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.05	1	-15	16	15.0	16.7	-1.67	15.2	15.5	-0.27
Ryan Bowen	36	36	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.16	5	-19	24	14.5	17.4	-2.91	14.9	15.8	-0.92
Devin Brown	48	47	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.25	7	-21	28	13.9	18.8	-4.85	15.1	15.7	-0.56
Melvin Ely	21	20	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-14	14	16.4	16.2	0.26	16.3	15.2	1.20
James Posey	58	59	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.39	9	-23	32	14.8	18.8	-4.01	16.1	14.1	1.99
Hilton Armstrong	27	27	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.25	-21	7	-28	21.5	14.0	7.52	15.0	15.6	-0.59
Rasual Butler	45	45	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.19	-21	7	-28	18.1	14.4	3.72	15.2	15.6	-0.43
Antonio Daniels	43	44	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.16	-21	7	-28	18.8	13.9	4.85	15.7	15.1	0.56
Peja Stojakovic	72	72	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.04	-15	1	-16	16.0	17.2	-1.24	15.2	16.2	-1.00
David West	75	76	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.12	-13	-1	-12	16.5	14.8	1.72	15.7	13.9	1.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.29,0.24,0.2,0.24,0.28,0.26,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.28,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.2,0.12,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 94, CHA 74	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.2,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.0%
WAS 119, PHI 90	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.31,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
BOS 111, CLE 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.31,0.21,0.14,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%