NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	111		Excitement	3.7 [1066]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +27.6%
Miami Heat	96		Comeback	1.0 [867]		LVP	Daequan Cook (MIA): -15.1%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.28	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.26	0.05	0.04	14	91%	0.28	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Devean George	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	13	58%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	7	79%	0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	70%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.03	8	58%	0.03	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.01
Antoine Wright	0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Terry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	17	59%	0.07	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Singleton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	5	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	6	59%	0.05	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.01
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	15	53%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.01	0.04	11	59%	0.04	2	-0.02	7	86%	0.00
Marcus Banks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	-0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	5	56%	0.01	1	-0.02	8	50%	-0.04
Yakhouba Diawara	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.03	0.01	0.10	23	60%	0.07	6	-0.12	4	50%	-0.02
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.03	-0.01	9	11%	-0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.4	29.4	20.7	24.3	2.3	29.3	134.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +56.8%

DAL +2.0%

MIA -3.6%

MIA -9.3%

DAL +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIA	NBA	DAL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	15.1	15.5	119.4	101.1	106.4
season	15.6	16.0		108.9	105.9
opponent	15.7	15.4		105.7	107.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.3	15.1	13.3	17.9	15.6
MIA	14.3	15.5	15.5	14.8	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kidd	70	70	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.18	22	-7	29	14.9	17.8	-2.97	15.1	15.0	0.07
Dirk Nowitzki	68	70	0.45	0.05	0.39	-0.02	16	-1	17	15.0	17.2	-2.25	14.9	15.6	-0.69
Josh Howard	56	56	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.09	8	7	1	15.1	16.3	-1.13	15.8	13.9	1.92
Erick Dampier	53	51	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.06	8	7	1	15.0	16.4	-1.37	16.0	13.9	2.13
Antoine Wright	34	35	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.01	9	6	3	14.1	16.5	-2.37	16.0	14.5	1.50
Brandon Bass	33	36	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.02	9	6	3	15.8	15.5	0.35	13.8	15.8	-2.05
Jason Terry	58	61	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.00	8	7	1	15.9	15.1	0.77	14.5	16.1	-1.57
Devean George	38	38	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.03	5	10	-5	17.2	14.5	2.65	13.9	15.8	-1.89
Jose Juan Barea	23	25	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.24	-7	22	-29	17.8	14.9	2.97	15.0	15.1	-0.07
James Singleton	31	32	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.11	-3	18	-21	17.3	14.7	2.60	15.2	15.0	0.20
Ryan Hollins	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	15	-15	27.0	15.5	11.53	19.0	15.0	3.99

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Banks	7	7	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-16	17	11.6	15.3	-3.76	20.4	15.2	5.23
Joel Anthony	5	5	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-12	9	11.0	15.3	-4.28	20.8	15.3	5.50
Chris Quinn	35	33	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.18	5	-20	25	15.1	15.0	0.05	17.3	14.7	2.61
Mark Blount	22	22	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	0	-15	15	14.8	15.1	-0.31	17.9	14.9	3.04
Yakhouba Diawara	12	12	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.07	-6	-9	3	16.6	14.8	1.75	15.7	15.6	0.18
James Jones	29	28	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.08	-8	-7	-1	15.8	14.7	1.12	17.0	15.0	2.07
Michael Beasley	55	52	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	-13	11	14.7	15.5	-0.77	15.2	16.1	-0.91
Daequan Cook	59	56	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.32	1	-16	17	15.0	15.1	-0.09	15.4	15.9	-0.45
Jamaal Magloire	46	47	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.02	-11	-4	-7	16.2	14.0	2.13	15.1	16.0	-0.89
Udonis Haslem	62	60	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.00	-14	-1	-13	14.9	15.3	-0.34	15.0	16.7	-1.67
Dwyane Wade	73	73	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.17	-21	6	-27	14.8	15.9	-1.06	14.7	19.0	-4.34
Mario Chalmers	70	70	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.03	-17	2	-19	15.1	15.0	0.13	14.8	17.9	-3.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.24,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.09,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 99, SEA 74	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.11,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%
SAS 83, DEN 74	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.2,0.21,0.24,0.28,0.39,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.17,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.01,0,0.01,0	95.6%
SAS 90, GSW 82	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.28,0.33,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.17,0.19,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0,0	95.6%