NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	104		Excitement	9.8 [74]		MVP	Francisco Garcia (SAC): +18.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	106		Comeback	2.3 [597]		LVP	Brad Miller (SAC): -39.0%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Francisco Garcia	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,0.18,0.18	0.06	0.11	-0.00	15	54%	0.18	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Jason Thompson	0.09	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	9	73%	0.17	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Spencer Hawes	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.00	4	60%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Bobby Jackson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bobby Brown	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.00	-0.05	0.01	8	71%	0.10	6	-0.16	12	92%	0.01
John Salmons	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	10	35%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.1	0.01	-0.10	0.01	11	50%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.03
Brad Miller	-0.39	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.39	0.04	-0.42	0.01	11	56%	-0.31	1	-0.08	3	100%	0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.05,0,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.09	0.02	13	62%	0.18	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.06	-0.02	4	62%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.01	0.03	6	68%	0.06	1	-0.03	7	71%	-0.02
Michael Redd	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.02	-0.00	10	58%	0.05	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	62%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.05	-0.00	9	54%	0.06	1	-0.08	8	75%	-0.08
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	11	42%	-0.03	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
Richard Jefferson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.14,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.22	-0.22	-0.06	-0.15	0.01	19	45%	-0.03	3	-0.19	6	67%	-0.10
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.29	-0.28	-0.07	-0.22	-0.00	11	32%	-0.27	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	2.6	29.1	15.8	26.2	2.3	35.7	139.2
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +12.5%

SAC -15.6%

MIL +63.9%

SAC -10.0%

SAC -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MIL	NBA	SAC	MIL	NBA
this game	16.0	15.0	15.5	111.8	114.0	106.4
season	15.0	15.0		104.0	104.9
opponent	15.6	15.1		105.6	112.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	15.7	15.2	16.0	17.2	16.0
MIL	14.9	14.8	13.3	17.1	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Thompson	56	55	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.05	8	-10	18	16.2	15.8	0.40	15.4	14.4	1.01
Bobby Jackson	22	24	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.11	-4	2	-6	15.3	16.2	-0.95	17.2	14.2	3.08
Spencer Hawes	23	24	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.04	-4	2	-6	15.5	16.2	-0.69	15.0	15.0	0.04
Bobby Brown	12	13	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.09	-7	5	-12	14.5	16.2	-1.72	14.7	15.0	-0.32
John Salmons	81	81	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.53	8	-10	18	16.1	15.6	0.48	15.1	14.1	1.02
Beno Udrih	71	69	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.55	2	-4	6	16.2	15.3	0.95	14.2	17.2	-3.08
Brad Miller	66	65	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	1	-4	16.0	16.0	0.05	15.0	15.0	-0.05
Kevin Martin	76	75	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.45	-5	3	-8	16.2	14.9	1.30	15.0	14.9	0.03
Francisco Garcia	58	59	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.46	-5	3	-8	15.9	16.1	-0.14	14.5	15.9	-1.40

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ramon Sessions	48	48	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.35	11	-9	20	14.8	15.2	-0.41	16.3	15.7	0.60
Francisco Elson	67	67	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.41	6	-4	10	15.0	14.8	0.28	15.7	16.7	-0.96
Luc Mbah a Moute	35	37	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.55	-1	3	-4	15.1	14.9	0.19	15.7	16.2	-0.49
Richard Jefferson	89	89	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.44	1	1	0	15.1	11.2	3.88	16.1	14.2	1.83
Luke Ridnour	59	59	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.48	-4	6	-10	14.9	15.1	-0.24	16.1	15.9	0.14
Tyronn Lue	34	33	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.03	3	-1	4	14.7	15.1	-0.37	16.3	15.8	0.47
Malik Allen	20	18	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.01	4	-2	6	13.4	15.4	-2.00	16.7	15.8	0.83
Michael Redd	53	53	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	6	-10	14.7	15.3	-0.58	15.4	16.8	-1.45
Charlie Villanueva	41	41	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.12	0	2	-2	15.7	14.4	1.37	16.2	15.8	0.39
Dan Gadzuric	19	20	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.03	-6	8	-14	15.6	14.8	0.77	16.3	15.9	0.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.66,0.45,0.63,0.78,0.43,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 104, DAL 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.6,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.34,0.38,0.54,0.68,0.73,1	91.6%
PHI 91, POR 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.46,0.37,0.27,0.39,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.29,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.33,0.53,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.72,0.78,0.58,1	91.3%
PHI 91, MIN 92	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.37,0.41,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.45,0.48,0.36,0.35,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.37,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.32,0.47,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.64,0.45,0.42,1	90.5%