NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	135		Excitement	17.4 [1]		MVP	John Salmons (SAC): +53.1%
Golden State Warriors	133		Comeback	66.6 [8]		LVP	Jamal Crawford (GSW): -32.5%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0.53	0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.53	0.09	0.46	0.02	17	57%	0.55	1	-0.02	10	90%	0.05
Francisco Garcia	0.46	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.26,0.26,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46	0.13	0.33	-0.00	13	66%	0.46	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Kevin Martin	0.17	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.17	-0.05	0.20	-0.02	21	45%	0.35	3	-0.18	9	100%	0.14
Jason Thompson	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.01	8	67%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Beno Udrih	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.08	0.09	-0.01	21	38%	0.06	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.03
Spencer Hawes	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	8	37%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.27	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.13,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.28,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	0.03	-0.29	0.01	20	61%	-0.06	6	-0.21	9	100%	0.08

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ronny Turiaf	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.09	0.00	6	57%	0.11	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.12
Kelenna Azubuike	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.16,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.08	0.08	-0.08	0.16	-0.00	17	40%	0.27	2	-0.19	6	100%	0.21
Anthony Morrow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.04	0.04	0.10	-0.05	0.01	11	68%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	8	55%	0.04	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.09
Rob Kurz	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	4	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0,0,0.07,0.07,0,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	0.02	-0.18	0.02	24	49%	-0.16	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.03	-0.22	0.02	12	47%	-0.17	2	-0.10	12	33%	-0.35
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.26,0.13,0.26,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0,-0.09,-0.2,-0.33	-0.33	-0.02	-0.32	-0.01	31	49%	-0.23	3	-0.10	10	80%	0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2		OT3	Total
this game	24.0	2.0	29.0	15.4	25.5	2.6	39.2	2.5	15.2	2.5	16.4	2.4	13.0	189.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	2.0	41.4	2.0	41.4	2.0	41.4	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +111.1%

SAC +51.1%

GSW -87.9%

SAC +6.0%

GSW -30.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	GSW	NBA	SAC	GSW	NBA
this game	17.0	13.8	15.5	110.7	107.3	106.4
season	15.0	13.8		104.0	107.3
opponent	15.0	15.1		111.2	112.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAC	15.8	15.8	16.3	18.4	18.7	17.0
GSW	14.2	13.5	11.9	12.9	16.1	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Salmons	109	112	0.87	-0.37	1.24	0.63	8	-6	14	16.8	18.5	-1.76	14.0	12.2	1.71
Brad Miller	98	101	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.44	11	-9	20	16.9	17.0	-0.09	13.9	13.3	0.54
Beno Udrih	107	109	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.41	9	-7	16	17.2	15.3	1.94	14.0	12.5	1.51
Kevin Martin	108	110	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.40	9	-7	16	17.0	16.9	0.04	13.8	14.1	-0.32
Jason Thompson	48	48	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.05	16	-14	30	14.9	18.3	-3.41	13.8	13.8	0.00
Francisco Garcia	76	78	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.44	-11	13	-24	18.1	15.1	2.95	14.0	13.5	0.50
Mikki Moore	8	8	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.04	-4	6	-10	16.5	17.0	-0.50	12.4	13.9	-1.51
Spencer Hawes	24	23	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.00	-9	11	-20	17.0	16.9	0.09	13.3	13.9	-0.54
Bobby Jackson	32	31	-0.68	1.18	-1.86	-0.12	-19	21	-40	17.4	16.8	0.55	12.6	14.2	-1.61

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andris Biedrins	62	66	0.92	-1.42	2.34	0.25	23	-25	48	13.0	14.6	-1.55	17.4	16.5	0.86
CJ Watson	96	98	0.43	-0.93	1.36	0.49	-2	0	-2	13.2	15.9	-2.67	17.1	16.5	0.53
Corey Maggette	73	74	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.13	-12	10	-22	13.3	14.5	-1.16	16.6	17.5	-0.84
Kelenna Azubuike	100	98	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.55	9	-11	20	13.7	14.2	-0.52	17.3	15.8	1.46
Anthony Morrow	60	57	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.59	9	-11	20	14.3	13.3	1.05	17.3	16.7	0.59
Jamal Crawford	119	116	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.45	1	-3	4	13.8	12.6	1.24	17.0	16.2	0.84
Rob Kurz	15	15	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.53	-1	-1	0	14.7	13.7	1.00	17.3	16.9	0.42
Anthony Randolph	33	30	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.27	-12	10	-22	15.3	13.2	2.10	15.6	17.4	-1.86
Ronny Turiaf	62	56	-1.42	0.92	-2.34	-0.69	-25	23	-48	14.6	13.0	1.55	16.5	17.4	-0.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.41,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.25,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.36,0.25,0.29,0.23,0.28,0.17,0.24,0.26,0.15,0.16,0.09,0.12,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.42,0.7,0.71,0.47,0.38,0.29,0.09,0.41,0.54,0.75,0.46,0.66,0.27,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.77,0.96,0.54,0.55,0.37,0.57,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 103, TOR 104	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.46,0.46,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.39,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.32,0.34,0.33,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.22,0.27,0.36,0.45,0.35,0.38,0.21,0.14,0.18,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.36,0.4,0.6,0.31,0.16,0.16,0.42,0.54,0.61,0.36,0.57,0.59,1	84.9%
UTA 103, HOU 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.27,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.16,0.12,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.58,0.73,0.81,0.54,0.45,0.36,0.16,0.1,0	84.9%
SAC 98, GSW 102	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.2,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.44,0.41,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.23,0.34,0.27,0.19,0.28,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.39,0.17,0.58,1	84.8%