NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	91		Excitement	6.9 [450]		MVP	George Hill (SAS): +29.3%
Miami Heat	84		Comeback	1.2 [825]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -19.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
George Hill	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.16	0.14	0.01	4	115%	0.33	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.02
Matt Bonner	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.00	7	79%	0.14	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.04	0.00	2	75%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.02	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	12	46%	0.02	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	14	36%	0.03	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	15	50%	0.08	3	-0.13	8	62%	-0.02
Kurt Thomas	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	9	44%	0.01	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.06	-0.01	4	100%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	14	52%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	7	64%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	10	45%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Daequan Cook	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	0.01	-0.08	0.04	14	54%	-0.02	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	5	0%	-0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.10	-0.10	-0.00	26	42%	-0.03	5	-0.16	5	60%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	1.8	25.5	16.6	22.3	2.7	34.3	125.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +64.4%

MIA -5.3%

SAS +5.4%

MIA -15.1%

SAS +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIA	NBA	SAS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.8	15.9	15.5	103.4	95.5	106.4
season	16.4	16.0		106.6	105.9
opponent	15.7	15.7		105.7	103.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.8	16.8	17.3	16.5	16.8
MIA	18.3	15.1	15.5	14.8	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Bonner	57	58	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.13	16	-9	25	16.8	16.8	-0.01	16.4	14.9	1.56
Roger Mason Jr.	48	47	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.20	12	-5	17	17.4	16.2	1.15	17.2	14.4	2.78
Tim Duncan	63	60	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.10	11	-4	15	17.1	16.2	0.94	17.0	13.5	3.57
Tony Parker	56	55	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.10	9	-2	11	16.5	17.4	-0.91	17.1	13.8	3.33
Michael Finley	35	36	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.06	9	-2	11	17.0	16.7	0.33	16.1	15.8	0.27
Manu Ginobili	49	50	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.16	1	6	-5	16.5	17.3	-0.77	15.8	16.0	-0.23
George Hill	32	33	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.20	-2	9	-11	17.4	16.5	0.91	13.8	17.1	-3.33
Kurt Thomas	32	33	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.19	-3	10	-13	17.1	16.7	0.37	14.7	16.6	-1.97
Bruce Bowen	45	43	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.23	-6	13	-19	16.2	17.5	-1.33	14.5	17.3	-2.80
Ime Udoka	15	16	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.06	-1	8	-9	15.1	17.2	-2.04	14.4	16.2	-1.86
Fabricio Oberto	1	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	9	-11	11.0	16.9	-5.90	2.5	16.2	-13.71
Anthony Tolliver	7	7	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.10	-9	16	-25	19.9	16.6	3.29	14.9	16.0	-1.13

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Yakhouba Diawara	16	15	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.01	3	-10	13	16.1	15.9	0.20	16.5	16.9	-0.36
Daequan Cook	10	11	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.05	5	-12	17	15.0	16.0	-1.01	17.5	16.7	0.71
Jamaal Magloire	30	29	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-7	7	15.8	16.0	-0.20	17.1	16.7	0.41
Chris Quinn	29	29	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.12	0	-7	7	14.1	16.8	-2.62	15.3	17.6	-2.21
Joel Anthony	19	19	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.03	-7	0	-7	17.1	15.6	1.54	17.8	16.6	1.29
Michael Beasley	55	56	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.39	2	-9	11	14.5	18.3	-3.85	16.5	17.5	-1.00
Mario Chalmers	59	60	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.17	-7	0	-7	16.8	14.1	2.62	17.3	15.8	1.53
Udonis Haslem	72	72	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.17	-9	2	-11	16.7	12.1	4.61	16.7	17.2	-0.51
Shawn Marion	66	66	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.29	-10	3	-13	15.9	15.8	0.17	17.2	15.6	1.59
Dwyane Wade	84	83	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.26	-12	5	-17	15.9	15.0	0.94	16.7	19.8	-3.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.3,0.38,0.53,0.34,0.19,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 116, CHI 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.35,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.56,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.24,0.27,0.36,0.36,0.22,0.31,0.06,0.15,0.05,0	93.9%
SAS 67, MIA 65	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.28,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.29,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.15,0	93.1%
UTA 115, SAS 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.31,0.35,0.28,0.39,0.29,0.14,0,0	92.8%