NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	102		Excitement	7.8 [264]		MVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): +35.5%
Toronto Raptors	108		Comeback	2.3 [273]		LVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): -27.9%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0.35	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.19,0.24,0.34,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.35	0.27	0.12	0.03	19	70%	0.39	1	-0.03	18	61%	-0.13
JJ Redick	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.12,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.18	0.04	0.12	-0.02	7	57%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.03	-0.00	11	58%	0.05	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Courtney Lee	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.25,0.14,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.07	-0.01	16	59%	0.28	3	-0.30	2	100%	0.03
Anthony Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.28	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.28	-0.13	-0.14	0.00	12	37%	-0.16	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Roko Leni Ukic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.24	0.24	0.05	0.17	-0.03	6	75%	0.31	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.06
Anthony Parker	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.17	0.07	0.02	16	81%	0.28	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.24,0.15,0.17	0.17	0.09	0.08	-0.00	12	61%	0.20	1	-0.02	14	93%	0.13
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.07	0.00	3	71%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	15	56%	0.08	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jamario Moon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	5	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Solomon	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.01	8	65%	0.06	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Jake Voskuhl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.08	-0.00	10	36%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	2.7	28.3	20.4	23.8	2.6	42.6	147.1
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL -12.6%

TOR +30.8%

TOR +4.1%

TOR +25.0%

TOR +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	TOR	NBA	ORL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.8	16.3	15.5	113.3	121.3	106.4
season	15.3	15.1		107.3	105.0
opponent	15.6	15.8		108.0	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.8	16.6	14.8	16.2	15.8
TOR	14.8	17.7	17.9	15.1	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Courtney Lee	42	40	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.01	6	-12	18	16.0	15.7	0.38	17.1	15.7	1.43
Anthony Johnson	25	24	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-7	8	17.1	15.4	1.71	17.0	16.1	0.91
Tony Battie	16	14	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.14	-5	-1	-4	17.6	15.5	2.09	15.2	16.5	-1.33
Marcin Gortat	18	17	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.04	-7	1	-8	17.3	15.5	1.79	13.2	17.1	-3.91
Keith Bogans	39	39	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.05	-9	3	-12	15.4	16.2	-0.86	16.1	16.5	-0.42
JJ Redick	33	33	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.29	2	-8	10	15.7	15.9	-0.23	16.3	16.4	-0.10
Dwight Howard	67	68	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.41	4	-10	14	15.5	16.8	-1.32	17.0	14.0	3.00
Jameer Nelson	65	65	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.30	-7	1	-8	15.4	17.1	-1.71	16.1	17.0	-0.91
Rashard Lewis	79	79	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.43	-4	-2	-2	15.5	18.6	-3.18	16.6	14.2	2.41
Hedo Turkoglu	66	66	-0.72	0.22	-0.95	-0.40	-11	5	-16	16.1	15.2	0.87	16.0	17.2	-1.19

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamario Moon	57	59	0.90	-0.40	1.30	0.31	20	-14	34	15.6	17.7	-2.11	16.3	14.9	1.39
Roko Leni Ukic	42	44	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.32	8	-2	10	16.0	16.7	-0.68	16.0	15.7	0.22
Chris Bosh	73	73	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.27	5	1	4	16.6	14.9	1.71	15.4	17.8	-2.44
Joey Graham	38	39	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.32	3	3	0	16.2	16.5	-0.31	16.1	15.6	0.50
Anthony Parker	68	69	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.25	4	2	2	16.4	16.2	0.19	15.3	17.5	-2.13
Jake Voskuhl	19	21	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.10	5	1	4	16.1	16.4	-0.29	16.6	15.6	1.01
Jason Kapono	33	32	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.14	-5	11	-16	16.2	16.4	-0.15	16.6	15.4	1.11
Will Solomon	47	46	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.00	-2	8	-10	16.7	16.0	0.68	15.7	16.0	-0.22
Andrea Bargnani	68	67	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.11	-8	14	-22	16.8	14.8	2.00	15.7	16.3	-0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.72,0.79,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.74,0.71,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.77,0.77,0.7,0.76,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.38,0.3,0.68,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 100, DEN 105	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.77,0.76,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.67,0.59,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.79,0.73,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.57,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.32,0.36,0.57,0.83,1	92.4%
MIL 112, CLE 117	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.65,0.64,0.74,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.86,0.78,0.74,0.69,0.78,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.75,0.63,0.6,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.67,0.58,0.74,0.59,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.55,0.58,1	90.3%
ORL 79, SAS 81	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.75,0.71,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.8,0.8,0.69,0.68,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.43,0.48,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.34,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.58,1	90.0%