NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	100		Excitement	8.9 [103]		MVP	Steve Francis (HOU): +38.4%
Denver Nuggets	105		Comeback	3.3 [413]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DEN): -29.4%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Francis	0.38	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.17,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.38	0.15	0.22	-0.02	16	70%	0.38	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Carlos Rogers	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Moochie Norris	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	8	73%	0.09	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.07
Walt Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bullard	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	45%	0.00	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.04
Shandon Anderson	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	29%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Kenny Thomas	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	6	36%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Cuttino Mobley	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.09,-0.09,0,-0.1,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.03	23	38%	-0.03	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.06
Maurice Taylor	-0.27	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.06	-0.18	0.03	19	52%	-0.13	5	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.37	0.37	0.09	0.27	-0.02	12	69%	0.39	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.25,0.31,0.28	0.28	0.12	0.17	0.01	13	73%	0.31	1	-0.03	15	87%	0.16
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.02	-0.01	11	62%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.01	5	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	6	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	37%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Robert Pack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	7	41%	-0.04	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.18,-0.12,-0.12,-0.24,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29	-0.29	-0.15	-0.14	0.01	19	39%	-0.22	3	-0.07	8	75%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.6	24.2	16.4	27.4	2.5	37.7	135.2
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU -0.6%

DEN +55.9%

DEN +6.2%

DEN +5.5%

HOU -17.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DEN	NBA	HOU	DEN	NBA
this game	15.9	14.3	15.5	104.2	110.5	100.9
season	16.3	15.2		104.6	101.4
opponent	15.2	14.9		104.1	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	17.1	16.3	13.6	16.4	15.9
DEN	11.7	13.7	15.8	16.3	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shandon Anderson	22	24	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-4	3	17.0	15.5	1.49	15.3	13.9	1.39
Carlos Rogers	41	40	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.26	7	-12	19	16.3	15.5	0.85	16.1	13.0	3.16
Walt Williams	30	29	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.01	-6	1	-7	15.4	16.1	-0.66	11.3	15.6	-4.25
Kenny Thomas	52	52	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.07	-9	4	-13	15.9	15.8	0.02	13.4	15.4	-2.01
Moochie Norris	65	63	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.44	4	-9	13	15.5	16.6	-1.12	15.1	12.8	2.28
Matt Bullard	23	25	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.23	-4	-1	-3	15.3	16.0	-0.67	13.4	14.6	-1.27
Maurice Taylor	76	73	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.29	-4	-1	-3	15.7	16.3	-0.56	14.3	14.4	-0.15
Cuttino Mobley	83	81	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.28	-5	0	-5	15.9	15.4	0.54	14.6	12.4	2.27
Steve Francis	88	88	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.34	-7	2	-9	15.9	15.1	0.80	14.1	16.4	-2.30

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Voshon Lenard	76	77	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.25	11	-6	17	13.8	16.2	-2.33	15.6	16.7	-1.03
James Posey	55	58	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.43	0	5	-5	15.1	13.2	1.85	14.9	17.3	-2.33
Antonio McDyess	81	83	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.28	5	0	5	14.6	12.4	2.27	15.9	15.4	0.54
Raef LaFrentz	71	73	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.39	-2	7	-9	14.3	14.2	0.12	15.0	18.7	-3.74
Robert Pack	33	31	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.04	8	-3	11	13.2	14.9	-1.75	17.5	15.0	2.50
Nick Van Exel	72	75	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.34	-3	8	-11	15.3	11.1	4.23	15.8	16.1	-0.37
Kevin Willis	38	36	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.04	7	-2	9	13.5	14.8	-1.28	17.5	14.9	2.63
George McCloud	36	35	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.12	6	-1	7	12.3	15.5	-3.16	17.2	15.1	2.16
Ryan Bowen	13	12	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.12	-7	12	-19	16.4	14.0	2.42	13.7	16.2	-2.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.77,0.76,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.67,0.59,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.79,0.73,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.57,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.32,0.36,0.57,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 102, TOR 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.72,0.79,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.74,0.71,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.77,0.77,0.7,0.76,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.38,0.3,0.68,0.58,1	92.4%
SAS 84, MIA 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.77,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.84,1	92.1%
MIL 90, ORL 94	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.65,0.73,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.65,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.72,0.81,0.86,0.94,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.71,0.71,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.67,0.95,1	91.7%