NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	83		Excitement	7.3 [368]		MVP	Rasual Butler (NOH): +16.0%
New Orleans Hornets	90		Comeback	8.2 [172]		LVP	Matt Bonner (SAS): -12.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.06	0.01	13	69%	0.20	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.03
Bruce Bowen	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.05	0.00	3	83%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.00	5	43%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07	-0.00	-0.06	0.01	14	46%	-0.04	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Manu Ginobili	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,-0.06,-0.09	0.02	-0.08	0.02	12	71%	0.07	5	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	9	28%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	7	33%	-0.06	3	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02
Matt Bonner	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.05	15	23%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasual Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.02	0.12	-0.02	11	54%	0.17	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
David West	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.12,-0.04,-0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.09	0.02	17	55%	0.16	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Hilton Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	4	80%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.04	-0.01	6	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	36%	-0.00	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Sean Marks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.07	0.01	15	54%	0.03	3	-0.10	5	100%	0.02
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	9	39%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.00	0.00	11	42%	0.07	5	-0.19	2	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	3.3	30.1	19.6	25.4	3.4	39.3	145.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +33.3%

NOH +0.9%

NOH +33.0%

SAS -14.3%

SAS -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	NOH	NBA	SAS	NOH	NBA
this game	15.8	17.1	15.5	94.3	103.4	106.4
season	16.4	16.6		106.6	105.9
opponent	15.6	15.7		106.0	103.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.6	15.5	18.0	12.8	15.8
NOH	20.1	18.0	15.4	15.4	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	27	26	0.37	-0.87	1.23	0.19	6	-13	19	15.0	16.1	-1.17	16.7	17.3	-0.60
George Hill	25	26	0.28	-0.78	1.07	0.14	5	-12	17	14.5	16.3	-1.81	17.7	16.9	0.83
Kurt Thomas	42	43	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.24	11	-18	29	14.6	16.8	-2.21	18.4	15.9	2.46
Fabricio Oberto	1	1	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.01	0	-7	7	24.0	15.7	8.32	9.0	17.2	-8.24
Michael Finley	45	46	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.08	-9	2	-11	17.2	14.3	2.92	17.5	16.7	0.79
Manu Ginobili	59	59	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.40	1	-8	9	14.3	18.8	-4.56	17.1	17.2	-0.04
Matt Bonner	63	62	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.00	-16	9	-25	16.0	15.3	0.63	16.5	18.8	-2.26
Tim Duncan	69	67	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.33	-10	3	-13	16.4	13.4	3.00	17.3	16.7	0.52
Roger Mason Jr.	46	44	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.32	-11	4	-15	16.4	15.0	1.39	16.7	17.6	-0.85
Tony Parker	63	61	-0.78	0.28	-1.07	-0.43	-12	5	-17	16.3	14.5	1.81	16.9	17.7	-0.83

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyson Chandler	65	67	0.94	-0.44	1.38	0.38	19	-12	31	17.0	17.6	-0.59	15.4	16.9	-1.42
David West	72	75	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.32	10	-3	13	17.1	17.5	-0.46	16.0	14.6	1.36
Chris Paul	70	70	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.40	3	4	-1	17.3	16.4	0.99	15.6	16.6	-1.05
James Posey	58	60	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.29	5	2	3	16.7	18.1	-1.43	14.3	19.0	-4.68
Rasual Butler	62	64	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.40	1	6	-5	17.4	16.4	1.00	15.5	16.6	-1.11
Devin Brown	44	44	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.15	12	-5	17	16.9	17.4	-0.53	17.7	13.8	3.95
Antonio Daniels	27	26	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.05	0	7	-7	17.4	17.0	0.43	17.2	15.2	2.01
Sean Marks	18	16	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	-0.07	-5	12	-17	18.2	16.9	1.28	14.5	16.1	-1.56
Hilton Armstrong	19	18	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	-0.05	-10	17	-27	17.0	17.2	-0.19	17.3	15.4	1.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.42,0.37,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.33,0.29,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.37,0.28,0.22,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.26,0.24,0.13,0.25,0.21,0.55,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 92, DAL 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.58,0.54,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.3,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.29,0.13,0.14,0.37,0.68,0.85,1	91.1%
MIN 98, NOH 102	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.49,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.37,0.28,0.19,0.1,0.21,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.31,0.28,0.57,0.85,1	90.7%
MIA 100, MIL 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.28,0.42,0.34,0.15,0.14,0.26,0.14,0.24,0.28,0.32,0.45,0.78,0.97,1	90.6%