NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	98		Excitement	7.7 [291]		MVP	Courtney Alexander (NOH): +28.3%
New Orleans Hornets	102		Comeback	14.4 [122]		LVP	Rasho Nesterovic (MIN): -28.6%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rod Strickland	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2	0.13	0.07	-0.00	8	89%	0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marc Jackson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Slater	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.00	8	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Loren Woods	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	10	52%	-0.00	3	-0.06	5	100%	0.04
Troy Hudson	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14	0.03	-0.15	0.01	11	58%	-0.09	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Kendall Gill	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14	-0.02	-0.10	0.02	11	42%	-0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Kevin Garnett	-0.27	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.25,-0.27	-0.11	-0.17	-0.00	15	42%	-0.23	2	-0.05	8	50%	-0.19
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.29	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29	-0.10	-0.19	0.00	17	35%	-0.11	2	-0.18	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Courtney Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.25,0.25,0.28	0.28	0.12	0.17	0.00	9	82%	0.32	1	-0.04	10	100%	0.09
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.02	0.01	21	58%	0.09	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	0.00	2	67%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	80%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	7	65%	0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.06
Robert Traylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	4	50%	-0.03	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.04
David Wesley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	12	31%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Baron Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.27	-0.27	-0.12	-0.14	0.01	16	43%	-0.10	5	-0.17	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.5	1.8	31.0	15.8	24.2	2.6	36.0	132.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +39.4%

NOH +30.5%

MIN -9.3%

MIN -5.3%

MIN -5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	NOH	NBA	MIN	NOH	NBA
this game	15.4	15.9	15.5	107.7	109.7	101.6
season	14.9	15.9		104.0	101.6
opponent	15.6	15.8		99.6	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.8	14.4	14.1	18.7	15.4
NOH	15.2	15.0	17.8	15.6	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Slater	33	35	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.06	3	-7	10	14.6	15.9	-1.36	17.4	14.9	2.47
Loren Woods	24	24	0.14	-0.64	0.79	0.11	1	-5	6	15.8	15.3	0.48	16.8	15.5	1.26
Anthony Peeler	18	18	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.04	3	-7	10	16.8	15.1	1.67	16.1	15.8	0.31
Marc Jackson	18	18	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.16	-5	1	-6	17.3	15.0	2.36	16.2	15.8	0.38
Rod Strickland	36	37	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	0	-4	15.7	15.3	0.38	15.4	16.2	-0.85
Kevin Garnett	79	83	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.53	7	-11	18	15.1	17.6	-2.47	16.1	14.0	2.08
Troy Hudson	56	57	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.43	0	-4	4	15.2	15.8	-0.63	15.9	15.8	0.13
Rasho Nesterovic	78	78	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.47	-3	-1	-2	15.1	17.3	-2.18	15.5	17.7	-2.23
Wally Szczerbiak	48	48	-0.73	0.23	-0.97	-0.44	-10	6	-16	15.3	15.6	-0.31	15.4	16.4	-1.00
Kendall Gill	65	67	-0.80	0.30	-1.10	-0.45	-12	8	-20	15.8	14.5	1.32	15.3	17.3	-2.01

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stacey Augmon	21	21	0.81	-0.31	1.13	0.46	12	-8	20	15.6	15.9	-0.37	18.7	14.5	4.26
P.J. Brown	65	65	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.42	10	-6	16	15.6	16.4	-0.71	15.7	14.9	0.78
Courtney Alexander	63	61	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.39	10	-6	16	15.6	16.5	-0.94	15.3	15.8	-0.54
Jamal Mashburn	79	77	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.36	7	-3	10	15.9	15.9	0.00	15.6	14.7	0.86
Baron Davis	79	78	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.54	0	4	-4	15.5	17.9	-2.35	14.9	18.6	-3.71
Robert Traylor	12	12	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.01	4	0	4	14.4	16.1	-1.66	13.8	15.7	-1.85
David Wesley	54	53	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.12	-2	6	-8	16.0	15.7	0.33	15.9	14.7	1.21
George Lynch	27	25	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.06	-6	10	-16	17.0	15.4	1.55	15.1	15.6	-0.50
Jamaal Magloire	65	63	-0.54	1.04	-1.58	-0.10	-15	19	-34	16.6	14.2	2.41	14.8	16.9	-2.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.49,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.37,0.28,0.19,0.1,0.21,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.31,0.28,0.57,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 97, TOR 102	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.36,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.28,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.3,0.22,0.29,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.36,0.55,0.91,1	92.3%
UTA 85, DAL 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.19,0.15,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.24,0.37,0.67,0.95,1	91.5%
LAL 92, DAL 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.58,0.54,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.3,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.29,0.13,0.14,0.37,0.68,0.85,1	91.3%