NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	101		Excitement	10.0 [64]		MVP	D.J. Augustin (CHA): +54.0%
Charlotte Bobcats	110		Comeback	8.3 [156]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -62.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0.26	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.26	0.05	0.18	-0.03	18	53%	0.29	1	-0.03	11	73%	0.09
Andres Nocioni	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2	0.02	0.17	-0.00	8	50%	0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.11	0.08	-0.00	16	61%	0.19	0	0.00	4	100%	0.06
Luol Deng	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.04	0.02	8	83%	0.15	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Joakim Noah	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.01	4	70%	0.10	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Drew Gooden	0.05	0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	11	64%	0.17	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	7	14%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.62	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.26,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.55,-0.55,-0.55,-0.55,-0.62,-0.62	-0.21	-0.41	0.00	16	19%	-0.48	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54	0.54	0.17	0.38	0.01	16	64%	0.55	1	-0.01	13	100%	0.20
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.07	0.19	0.01	12	57%	0.26	1	-0.02	11	55%	-0.07
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	5	64%	0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Ryan Hollins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	4	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Sean Singletary	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	13	54%	0.05	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	8	40%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Raja Bell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	5	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.07	0.02	17	50%	-0.03	3	-0.08	8	87%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.9	2.6	25.3	15.6	26.0	2.5	34.4	1.8	18.8	152.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	2.0	41.4	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI -6.6%

CHA +38.3%

CHA +2.9%

CHA +7.6%

CHA +7.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	CHA	NBA	CHI	CHA	NBA
this game	15.7	16.5	15.5	100.0	113.4	106.4
season	14.8	16.5		106.3	103.0
opponent	15.6	15.7		104.5	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CHI	14.2	19.1	16.6	13.5	16.1	15.7
CHA	16.6	17.9	16.1	17.2	12.3	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gray	23	23	0.27	-0.77	1.03	-0.03	10	-19	29	15.8	15.6	0.19	18.3	15.9	2.43
Drew Gooden	60	58	0.07	-0.57	0.65	0.07	0	-9	9	15.9	15.4	0.45	18.0	14.2	3.80
Luol Deng	50	51	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.18	3	-12	15	16.1	15.2	0.90	17.6	15.2	2.48
Larry Hughes	39	37	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.05	-6	-3	-3	15.5	15.8	-0.24	16.3	16.6	-0.30
Joakim Noah	34	31	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.06	-11	2	-13	15.6	15.7	-0.19	13.5	17.9	-4.41
Andres Nocioni	45	44	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.02	-9	0	-9	15.5	15.8	-0.31	15.9	16.9	-0.95
Ben Gordon	95	91	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.25	-9	0	-9	15.5	18.3	-2.82	16.0	22.8	-6.80
Derrick Rose	90	85	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.33	-9	0	-9	15.6	16.5	-0.97	16.8	14.3	2.42
Tyrus Thomas	69	65	-0.85	0.35	-1.20	-0.44	-14	5	-19	15.8	15.5	0.27	15.6	18.2	-2.59

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
D.J. Augustin	84	87	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.13	19	-10	29	16.0	19.2	-3.12	15.8	15.0	0.79
Matt Carroll	58	61	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.19	13	-4	17	15.4	18.0	-2.54	15.1	16.5	-1.39
Raymond Felton	93	96	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.25	8	1	7	16.2	21.2	-5.00	15.6	17.2	-1.60
Ryan Hollins	29	30	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.07	12	-3	15	13.6	17.7	-4.04	16.5	15.3	1.21
Boris Diaw	84	88	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.16	8	1	7	16.4	16.5	-0.10	15.4	17.3	-1.86
Juwan Howard	45	45	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	9	-9	17.8	15.3	2.51	16.9	14.7	2.25
Sean Singletary	4	5	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.00	1	8	-7	21.2	16.2	5.00	17.2	15.6	1.60
Emeka Okafor	75	79	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.21	-6	15	-21	17.5	12.7	4.82	15.3	16.9	-1.57
Raja Bell	13	14	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.10	-10	19	-29	19.2	16.0	3.12	15.0	15.8	-0.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.25,0.36,0.46,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.42,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.52,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.24,0.46,0.39,0.28,0.33,0.17,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.57,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 93, MIA 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.24,0.29,0.27,0.18,0.23,0.31,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.35,0.33,0.55,0.46,0.55,0.15,0.54,0.55,0.72,0.89,0.96,1	89.6%
NOP 106, TOR 108	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.14,0.16,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.59,0.68,0.58,0.7,0.57,0.42,0.53,0.47,0.35,0.27,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.63,0.67,0.85,1	88.3%
SAS 118, DAL 123	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.4,0.66,0.72,0.71,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.34,0.19,0.15,0.32,0.15,0.54,0.61,0.79,0.69,0.92,1	88.2%