NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	112		Excitement	3.8 [1055]		MVP	Brandan Wright (GSW): +9.5%
Oklahoma City Thunder	102		Comeback	1.0 [743]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -16.0%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandan Wright	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.12	0.00	0.03	6	83%	0.09	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
CJ Watson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.01	-0.04	6	71%	0.09	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Marco Belinelli	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	0.00	0.03	7	93%	0.06	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ronny Turiaf	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	7	53%	0.06	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Anthony Morrow	0.03	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	12	50%	0.04	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.02
Jamal Crawford	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	13	61%	0.07	5	-0.07	5	80%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.11	0.00	-0.07	15	46%	0.03	6	-0.06	7	43%	-0.02
Kelenna Azubuike	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.10	0.00	-0.06	15	41%	0.01	4	-0.05	4	100%	0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08	0.08	0.20	0.00	0.12	27	69%	0.14	4	-0.06	5	100%	0.01
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.08	-0.00	0.04	10	60%	0.03	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	9	56%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	10	50%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.01	4	30%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	-0.00	-0.03	7	33%	-0.02	3	-0.05	4	50%	-0.01
Jeff Green	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.14	-0.00	-0.04	13	30%	-0.06	3	-0.04	4	25%	-0.03
Russell Westbrook	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.22	-0.01	-0.08	13	23%	-0.07	6	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.7	28.2	14.8	27.0	1.8	40.2	138.0
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +32.4%

GSW +12.9%

OKC -1.1%

GSW +7.3%

OKC -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	OKC	NBA	GSW	OKC	NBA
this game	12.7	13.9	15.5	103.7	94.4	106.4
season	13.8	14.9		107.3	100.5
opponent	15.1	15.0		106.6	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.5	11.5	13.5	12.6	12.7
OKC	14.8	15.1	15.3	11.0	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelenna Azubuike	100	101	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.06	18	-8	26	12.4	16.5	-4.06	14.1	11.4	2.67
Andris Biedrins	89	89	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.27	7	3	4	13.3	10.1	3.26	14.1	13.1	1.00
Jamal Crawford	91	89	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.29	0	10	-10	13.0	11.1	1.93	13.3	16.9	-3.67
Ronny Turiaf	60	60	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.22	2	8	-6	13.0	12.5	0.51	14.7	12.9	1.82
CJ Watson	51	51	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.19	2	8	-6	12.2	13.2	-0.99	12.7	15.0	-2.35
Anthony Morrow	57	58	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.07	10	0	10	12.1	13.4	-1.27	14.3	13.5	0.87
Brandan Wright	48	50	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.02	7	3	4	13.3	12.3	0.99	14.6	13.4	1.22
Marco Belinelli	44	42	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.07	4	6	-2	12.1	13.2	-1.06	13.5	14.2	-0.66

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johan Petro	10	9	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.02	-2	-8	6	14.9	13.8	1.07	11.8	12.8	-1.05
Earl Watson	61	61	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.21	0	-10	10	13.1	15.0	-1.90	12.5	13.0	-0.53
Desmond Mason	51	50	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.15	-3	-7	4	14.1	13.8	0.36	13.1	12.4	0.71
Damien Wilkins	51	50	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.02	-9	-1	-8	14.9	13.1	1.81	13.3	12.2	1.08
Nick Collison	54	56	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-5	-5	0	13.4	14.4	-1.00	11.7	13.9	-2.21
Kevin Durant	98	98	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.30	0	-10	10	13.6	17.2	-3.61	13.0	10.2	2.80
Russell Westbrook	77	78	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.25	-2	-8	6	13.4	15.1	-1.69	12.9	12.4	0.43
Chris Wilcox	56	56	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.06	-9	-1	-8	14.9	12.9	2.05	13.6	11.8	1.84
Jeff Green	82	82	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.08	-20	10	-30	14.2	13.0	1.22	12.1	14.7	-2.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.29,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 111, CLE 98	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.33,0.38,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.23,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	96.8%
MIL 98, MIA 83	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.28,0.23,0.19,0.15,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0	96.7%
BOS 114, VAN 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.32,0.29,0.24,0.2,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0	96.7%