NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	88		Excitement	4.2 [988]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +18.2%
Boston Celtics	107		Comeback	1.2 [1192]		LVP	Anthony Johnson (ORL): -14.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.01	23	56%	0.12	2	-0.04	8	75%	0.07
Tony Battie	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	5	64%	0.06	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
JJ Redick	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.02	5	60%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.00	0.04	16	49%	-0.02	2	-0.02	7	57%	-0.01
Dwight Howard	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	12	47%	0.02	3	-0.06	6	67%	-0.01
Courtney Lee	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	9	33%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.05	-0.03	11	18%	-0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.13	0.05	-0.00	13	67%	0.20	1	-0.01	10	90%	0.02
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.02	-0.00	11	62%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.13	-0.03	0.02	13	75%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.09	0.00	0.05	5	100%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.07	7	37%	0.02	2	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.03	10	67%	0.08	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	7	57%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Leon Powe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	2	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	5	33%	-0.00	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Brian Scalabrine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	1.7	29.3	15.6	28.2	2.6	29.4	131.6
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +48.2%

ORL -0.5%

ORL -3.1%

ORL -0.6%

BOS +5.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	BOS	NBA	ORL	BOS	NBA
this game	17.0	16.3	15.5	101.1	124.4	106.4
season	15.3	15.8		107.3	108.3
opponent	15.6	15.8		101.7	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.1	16.2	20.3	15.9	17.0
BOS	14.5	18.1	16.8	16.1	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Battie	41	42	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.11	4	-23	27	18.0	16.1	1.86	17.8	14.9	2.85
Courtney Lee	46	48	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.01	-9	-10	1	17.5	16.3	1.23	17.0	15.5	1.43
Rashard Lewis	79	79	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.05	-14	-5	-9	16.5	21.2	-4.72	16.0	20.1	-4.16
JJ Redick	59	58	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.02	-13	-6	-7	16.8	17.4	-0.58	15.6	17.7	-2.11
Dwight Howard	78	77	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.06	-18	-1	-17	16.7	18.9	-2.15	16.4	16.1	0.24
Anthony Johnson	56	53	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.07	-19	0	-19	16.8	17.3	-0.50	16.1	16.7	-0.55
Hedo Turkoglu	76	73	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	0.21	-26	7	-33	17.0	16.5	0.58	16.1	17.5	-1.43

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	72	73	0.63	-0.13	0.75	-0.11	25	-6	31	16.4	15.9	0.47	17.0	16.8	0.21
Paul Pierce	60	60	0.54	-0.04	0.57	-0.05	20	-1	21	16.1	16.8	-0.69	17.4	15.9	1.56
Kevin Garnett	61	61	0.50	0.00	0.49	-0.09	20	-1	21	16.3	16.3	0.01	17.7	15.2	2.58
Rajon Rondo	59	60	0.49	0.01	0.47	-0.10	20	-1	21	16.1	16.8	-0.66	17.2	16.4	0.76
Kendrick Perkins	53	52	0.28	0.22	0.05	-0.16	15	4	11	16.7	15.8	0.87	16.3	18.0	-1.68
Glen Davis	35	37	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.15	0	19	-19	16.6	16.1	0.46	17.8	16.3	1.52
Leon Powe	22	24	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.01	3	16	-13	15.7	16.5	-0.87	15.1	17.7	-2.54
Eddie House	28	27	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	20	-21	16.3	16.3	-0.06	16.4	17.2	-0.76
Tony Allen	35	36	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.06	1	18	-17	15.9	16.6	-0.65	16.8	17.1	-0.23
Brian Scalabrine	5	5	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.10	-8	27	-35	20.4	16.1	4.33	11.6	17.3	-5.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.8,0.79,0.73,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.63,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.77,0.8,0.86,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.91,0.97,0.98,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 113, GSW 132	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.64,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.66,0.75,0.81,0.81,0.74,0.77,0.86,0.87,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
WAS 79, CHI 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.8,0.75,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.74,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.83,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.9,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
NYK 87, MIL 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.92,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%