NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	84		Excitement	3.8 [1060]		MVP	Luther Head (HOU): +19.5%
Houston Rockets	103		Comeback	1.0 [941]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -8.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bonner	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.18	0.02	0.01	7	106%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Roger Mason Jr.	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.01	7	57%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	29%	0.00	1	0.00	1	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	4	20%	-0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.04	18	40%	0.00	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.02
Michael Finley	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.01	0.04	5	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.11	-0.02	-0.06	8	17%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	6	61%	0.05	5	-0.13	6	100%	0.02
Tony Parker	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	12	47%	-0.05	2	-0.03	8	62%	-0.03

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luther Head	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.18	0.04	0.02	11	78%	0.20	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	0.01	0.02	11	68%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.01	10	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	7	69%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.01	11	48%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Joey Dorsey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	9	55%	0.05	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Von Wafer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	2	17%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	15	40%	-0.00	2	-0.03	10	70%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.5	2.7	33.3	15.8	25.0	1.8	31.4	131.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +31.9%

HOU +6.1%

HOU +0.9%

HOU +11.8%

SAS -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	HOU	NBA	SAS	HOU	NBA
this game	15.2	15.8	15.5	90.3	110.8	106.4
season	16.4	16.3		106.6	105.9
opponent	15.2	15.7		102.7	103.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.6	14.0	16.6	13.7	15.2
HOU	14.1	15.3	16.1	17.8	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	53	54	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.14	4	-23	27	14.4	16.2	-1.83	15.6	16.1	-0.55
Kurt Thomas	31	31	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.07	-4	-15	11	13.4	16.1	-2.74	16.6	15.4	1.24
Bruce Bowen	40	40	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.11	1	-20	21	14.8	15.4	-0.58	16.9	14.9	1.96
Ime Udoka	18	21	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.08	-6	-13	7	14.4	15.4	-0.92	17.1	15.4	1.69
Anthony Tolliver	18	17	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.05	-6	-13	7	16.4	14.9	1.50	18.2	15.2	3.00
Matt Bonner	44	47	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	-15	11	14.7	15.7	-0.99	15.4	16.2	-0.86
Roger Mason Jr.	43	41	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.00	-7	-12	5	15.4	15.0	0.35	15.6	15.9	-0.31
Manu Ginobili	42	44	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.05	-8	-11	3	15.3	15.1	0.23	15.3	16.2	-0.89
Fabricio Oberto	29	27	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.07	-13	-6	-7	17.9	13.9	3.99	14.8	16.2	-1.42
Tim Duncan	54	56	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-9	-10	1	15.4	14.9	0.45	15.4	16.3	-0.85
Michael Finley	47	44	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.24	-20	1	-21	15.4	15.0	0.45	14.6	16.8	-2.18
George Hill	46	43	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.19	-23	4	-27	15.5	14.9	0.54	16.2	15.4	0.75

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luther Head	79	79	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.02	16	3	13	16.2	13.6	2.52	15.3	14.7	0.55
Rafer Alston	64	65	0.43	0.07	0.37	-0.15	20	-1	21	15.9	15.5	0.44	15.1	15.5	-0.40
Luis Scola	47	48	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.07	16	3	13	15.8	15.7	0.09	16.5	13.8	2.68
Shane Battier	37	36	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.01	12	7	5	15.7	15.8	-0.09	14.9	15.4	-0.43
Carl Landry	24	24	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.13	14	5	9	13.8	16.5	-2.63	15.6	15.0	0.54
Yao Ming	54	53	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.13	1	18	-17	16.2	15.2	1.04	15.9	14.2	1.68
Charles Hayes	38	39	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.10	2	17	-15	15.3	16.1	-0.88	14.3	15.8	-1.46
Metta World Peace	67	67	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.08	7	12	-5	15.8	15.8	-0.03	14.5	16.9	-2.36
Aaron Brooks	40	40	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.02	2	17	-15	16.1	15.6	0.51	14.6	15.6	-0.98
Von Wafer	11	11	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.02	3	16	-13	14.8	15.9	-1.10	16.2	15.0	1.13
Joey Dorsey	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	17	-15	16.7	15.7	1.01	11.7	15.3	-3.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.76,0.75,0.8,0.83,0.89,0.86,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.83,0.74,0.77,0.7,0.7,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.83,0.86,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 88, UTA 110	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.62,0.67,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.8,0.82,0.78,0.8,0.86,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.88,0.85,0.8,0.75,0.67,0.73,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.7,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.79,0.82,0.86,0.93,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
DET 88, CHI 103	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.8,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.85,0.83,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.72,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.71,0.63,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.76,0.78,0.79,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
WAS 96, PHX 128	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.79,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.64,0.7,0.61,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.82,0.84,0.94,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%