NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	101		Excitement	10.2 [58]		MVP	Larry Hughes (CHI): +78.4%
Utah Jazz	100		Comeback	14.7 [69]		LVP	Luol Deng (CHI): -16.3%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Larry Hughes	0.78	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.78	0.08	0.71	0.00	10	67%	0.80	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.04
Andres Nocioni	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.02	0.13	0.00	3	87%	0.23	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.04
Derrick Rose	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.05,0,0,0.09,0.14,0.13	0.07	0.06	0.01	18	62%	0.23	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.09
Aaron Gray	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.07	0.00	5	80%	0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.00	-0.02	15	56%	0.14	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Joakim Noah	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	14	48%	0.02	2	-0.08	3	67%	-0.00
Luol Deng	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	0.00	5	20%	-0.05	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ Miles	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.35	0.35	0.07	0.28	-0.01	8	75%	0.38	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.27,0.3	0.30	0.15	0.16	0.01	18	67%	0.35	1	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.06	0.00	12	66%	0.17	2	-0.04	8	62%	-0.02
Ronnie Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	10	55%	0.08	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Morris Almond	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.12	0.07	-0.00	6	29%	0.08	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.19,-0.12,0.06,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	19	45%	0.13	3	-0.22	2	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	1.8	25.5	15.7	24.1	1.7	33.6	128.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +14.1%

CHI +30.3%

UTA -5.0%

UTA -6.2%

CHI +16.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	UTA	NBA	CHI	UTA	NBA
this game	15.1	16.1	15.5	109.8	107.5	106.4
season	14.8	15.3		106.3	107.7
opponent	15.0	15.7		105.4	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	12.8	16.8	16.3	14.7	15.1
UTA	15.5	15.2	14.3	19.6	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andres Nocioni	33	34	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.52	1	0	1	15.1	15.1	-0.01	17.5	15.3	2.22
Larry Hughes	61	61	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.36	4	-3	7	14.2	16.7	-2.43	15.3	17.6	-2.28
Lindsey Hunter	22	23	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.07	12	-11	23	16.9	14.5	2.36	18.9	15.1	3.73
Ben Gordon	80	80	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.54	-5	6	-11	15.1	14.9	0.17	15.2	21.1	-5.83
Aaron Gray	29	27	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.11	5	-4	9	16.9	14.2	2.62	17.5	15.5	2.00
Drew Gooden	63	66	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.36	-4	5	-9	14.2	16.9	-2.62	15.5	17.5	-2.00
Joakim Noah	35	35	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	-3	7	14.8	15.2	-0.47	14.3	17.2	-2.90
Derrick Rose	70	70	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.40	-11	12	-23	14.5	16.9	-2.36	15.1	18.9	-3.73
Tyrus Thomas	41	42	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	2	-3	15.8	14.5	1.38	17.1	15.2	1.97
Luol Deng	26	27	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.04	0	1	-1	16.1	14.7	1.46	19.1	14.8	4.35

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kosta Koufos	8	7	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.01	-1	0	-1	17.6	15.9	1.71	17.3	14.9	2.40
Paul Millsap	66	67	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.02	-3	2	-5	16.8	14.2	2.60	15.2	14.8	0.36
Mehmet Okur	80	79	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.40	9	-10	19	15.1	22.1	-6.99	14.6	17.7	-3.06
Brevin Knight	23	24	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	1	-3	19.9	14.8	5.11	17.1	14.4	2.73
CJ Miles	64	62	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.42	7	-8	15	14.2	20.3	-6.12	14.8	15.5	-0.69
Morris Almond	24	24	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.12	-5	4	-9	17.5	15.6	1.88	16.5	14.6	1.88
Ronnie Price	70	68	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.32	1	-2	3	14.8	19.9	-5.11	14.4	17.1	-2.73
Ronnie Brewer	78	78	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.39	-5	4	-9	16.5	13.7	2.78	14.8	16.6	-1.86
Andrei Kirilenko	52	51	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.57	-6	5	-11	17.4	14.4	3.04	15.4	14.7	0.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.36,0.38,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.36,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.7,0.74,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.57,0.48,0.47,0.36,0.2,0.22,0.36,0.37,0.45,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 103, POR 102	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.3,0.28,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.64,0.62,0.7,0.67,0.47,0.53,0.3,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.28,0.32,0.47,0	91.8%
BOS 94, DET 92	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.36,0.45,0.55,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.71,0.72,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.42,0.41,0.35,0.39,0.31,0.37,0.34,0.42,0	91.1%
WAS 89, NYK 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.37,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.38,0.23,0.17,0.29,0.27,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.42,0	90.6%