NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	105		Excitement	6.6 [497]		MVP	John Salmons (SAC): +36.3%
New Orleans Hornets	96		Comeback	5.6 [44]		LVP	Beno Udrih (SAC): -12.4%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0.36	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.32,0.32,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.36	0.18	0.17	-0.01	18	72%	0.43	1	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Bobby Jackson	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.04,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18	0.05	0.13	0.01	7	57%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donte Greene	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.12	0.01	0.01	9	75%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brad Miller	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	8	67%	0.11	5	-0.11	5	60%	-0.02
Spencer Hawes	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.00	9	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Bobby Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	11	45%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	9	52%	0.02	5	-0.14	9	89%	0.02

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasual Butler	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	8	62%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.00	8	72%	0.14	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	15	63%	0.19	4	-0.15	5	80%	0.01
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	9	57%	0.07	2	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	8	44%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Hilton Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.03	0.03	13	61%	0.05	4	-0.09	7	86%	0.02
Julian Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	9	33%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	1.8	29.1	15.7	23.2	2.7	46.8	141.7
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +44.8%

NOH -1.0%

SAC +6.1%

NOH -0.9%

SAC +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	NOH	NBA	SAC	NOH	NBA
this game	17.0	16.2	15.5	122.1	109.1	106.4
season	15.0	16.6		104.0	105.9
opponent	15.6	15.1		106.0	112.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	16.9	16.6	18.0	16.2	17.0
NOH	17.4	16.9	14.0	16.5	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Beno Udrih	63	64	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.35	13	-4	17	15.6	20.7	-5.11	16.2	16.1	0.05
John Salmons	76	75	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.32	12	-3	15	16.5	20.4	-3.90	16.0	17.2	-1.26
Brad Miller	66	66	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.39	9	0	9	15.8	20.7	-4.95	15.6	17.8	-2.15
Spencer Hawes	47	48	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.24	9	0	9	18.1	15.6	2.45	17.4	14.7	2.63
Bobby Jackson	40	42	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.26	8	1	7	17.0	16.9	0.09	16.1	16.2	-0.08
Donte Greene	61	65	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.09	-1	10	-11	16.7	17.7	-1.02	16.0	16.7	-0.67
Jason Thompson	54	56	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	-0.19	-1	10	-11	18.3	14.6	3.71	16.2	16.0	0.25
Bobby Brown	23	24	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.11	-4	13	-17	20.7	15.6	5.11	16.1	16.2	-0.05

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hilton Armstrong	24	24	0.26	-0.76	1.03	0.12	5	-14	19	16.2	16.1	0.07	20.0	15.8	4.23
Peja Stojakovic	52	50	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-10	11	16.2	16.2	-0.01	16.5	17.6	-1.04
Julian Wright	22	22	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-5	1	16.8	15.9	0.88	17.8	16.7	1.10
Rasual Butler	52	50	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.12	-9	0	-9	16.1	16.2	-0.15	16.8	17.2	-0.46
Devin Brown	41	41	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.22	1	-10	11	16.0	16.3	-0.34	18.0	16.0	1.95
David West	66	64	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.29	-5	-4	-1	15.9	16.8	-0.88	16.7	17.8	-1.10
Chris Paul	70	67	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.25	-10	1	-11	15.9	17.0	-1.06	16.5	18.5	-1.95
James Posey	53	52	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.23	-12	3	-15	16.1	16.2	-0.12	16.7	17.3	-0.61
Tyson Chandler	60	60	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.41	-12	3	-15	16.6	15.2	1.44	16.2	18.6	-2.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.67,0.56,0.54,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.36,0.27,0.23,0.32,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.81,0.64,0.53,0.4,0.15,0.05,0.05,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 91, TOR 82	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.51,0.45,0.33,0.27,0.32,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.7,0.66,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.4,0.28,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.01,0	91.2%
LAC 104, DEN 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.61,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.75,0.74,0.76,0.7,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.6,0.57,0.45,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.27,0.34,0.37,0.6,0.5,0.43,0.53,0.52,0.63,0.74,0.54,0.34,0.14,0.11,0.05,0.17,0	91.1%
PHX 115, GSW 111	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.6,0.55,0.45,0.39,0.29,0.32,0.24,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.66,0.67,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.14,0.02,0.03,0.08,0	90.9%