NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	90		Excitement	6.3 [559]		MVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): +28.2%
Charlotte Bobcats	85		Comeback	2.0 [346]		LVP	Anthony Johnson (ORL): -12.1%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.04	0.18	-0.06	15	51%	0.30	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.03
Jameer Nelson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.00	-0.00	10	75%	0.13	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.05	0.01	13	62%	0.14	3	-0.06	3	67%	-0.02
Tony Battie	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	0.00	5	75%	0.13	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Keith Bogans	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	16	50%	0.08	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Courtney Lee	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	6	67%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	0.00	5	0%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.02	14	56%	0.08	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Adam Morrison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	10	64%	0.13	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.02
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	7	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	3	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Raymond Felton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	14	41%	0.04	2	-0.07	6	67%	-0.00
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	6	33%	-0.05
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	7	57%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shannon Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	3	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean May	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	5	40%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	2.7	29.1	15.7	23.0	2.4	35.6	134.2
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +38.4%

ORL +9.0%

CHA -2.5%

ORL +5.0%

ORL +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CHA	NBA	ORL	CHA	NBA
this game	16.3	17.2	15.5	103.4	100.0	106.4
season	15.3	16.5		107.3	103.0
opponent	15.6	15.8		104.5	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	17.8	15.3	16.3	15.9	16.3
CHA	18.2	18.2	16.5	16.1	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jameer Nelson	62	60	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.34	7	-2	9	16.0	17.1	-1.13	17.4	16.8	0.60
Mickael Pietrus	39	39	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.08	15	-10	25	14.9	17.4	-2.50	18.7	16.0	2.67
Rashard Lewis	77	75	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.35	5	0	5	16.3	16.1	0.20	17.4	15.9	1.50
Hedo Turkoglu	68	67	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.27	7	-2	9	16.6	15.3	1.30	16.8	18.7	-1.90
Tony Battie	53	48	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.22	3	2	1	16.3	16.2	0.11	16.6	18.1	-1.52
Dwight Howard	44	47	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.14	2	3	-1	16.2	16.4	-0.19	17.6	16.7	0.88
Keith Bogans	53	50	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.37	-6	11	-17	17.6	14.2	3.45	16.1	18.8	-2.63
Anthony Johnson	25	25	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.01	-2	7	-9	17.1	16.0	1.13	16.8	17.4	-0.60
JJ Redick	5	5	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.00	-3	8	-11	14.4	16.4	-1.99	17.6	17.2	0.40
Courtney Lee	9	9	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.01	-3	8	-11	13.2	16.6	-3.41	19.8	16.9	2.86

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean May	23	24	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.02	0	-5	5	18.0	17.0	1.00	16.5	16.2	0.37
Ryan Hollins	16	18	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.08	2	-7	9	16.6	17.4	-0.74	14.9	16.6	-1.68
Matt Carroll	44	46	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.06	-1	-4	3	17.6	16.8	0.81	15.6	17.0	-1.42
Shannon Brown	14	15	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-5	5	16.9	17.3	-0.44	14.5	16.7	-2.19
Nazr Mohammed	24	24	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.06	-4	-1	-3	17.9	17.0	0.91	17.6	15.8	1.81
D.J. Augustin	45	46	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.34	5	-10	15	16.8	17.7	-0.95	17.7	14.6	3.10
Jared Dudley	38	38	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.24	0	-5	5	16.5	17.8	-1.36	16.5	16.1	0.35
Emeka Okafor	42	41	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.11	-6	1	-7	17.7	16.7	0.97	16.0	16.5	-0.52
Adam Morrison	37	36	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.15	-5	0	-5	17.2	17.2	0.03	17.1	15.7	1.42
Raymond Felton	69	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.30	-4	-1	-3	17.0	18.1	-1.11	16.0	17.7	-1.76
Gerald Wallace	73	75	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.30	-12	7	-19	17.3	16.7	0.65	15.9	18.6	-2.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.61,0.63,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.55,0.61,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.38,0.23,0.17,0.24,0.17,0.1,0.07,0.06,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 87, CHH 81	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.43,0.45,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.32,0.17,0.2,0.17,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.03,0	93.8%
SAS 99, OKC 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.26,0.38,0.33,0.19,0.21,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.01,0,0	93.6%
NOH 104, DAL 97	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.57,0.64,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.59,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.29,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.01,0.03,0.01,0	93.1%