NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	102		Excitement	9.9 [69]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +41.0%
Dallas Mavericks	100		Comeback	10.3 [88]		LVP	Jason Terry (DAL): -51.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mickael Pietrus	0.41	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.41,0.41	0.12	0.30	0.00	12	69%	0.43	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Rashard Lewis	0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.05,-0.04,0.24	0.05	0.19	-0.00	14	61%	0.37	3	-0.13	10	90%	0.15
Courtney Lee	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.01	10	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,-0.09	0.01	-0.11	-0.00	18	52%	-0.03	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.03
Keith Bogans	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.11	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	14	45%	-0.03	2	-0.08	12	50%	-0.10
Anthony Johnson	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.03	-0.00	8	12%	-0.11	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.2,0.41	0.41	0.12	0.29	-0.01	18	62%	0.41	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	2	33%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	9	65%	0.10	6	-0.17	2	100%	0.05
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	5	33%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.12,0.04,-0.17	-0.17	0.05	-0.21	0.01	15	57%	0.13	3	-0.30	14	71%	-0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,-0.09,-0.18,-0.51	-0.51	-0.04	-0.47	-0.00	23	43%	-0.28	2	-0.23	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.4	28.6	16.0	29.0	2.0	38.3	144.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +10.4%

ORL +17.1%

DAL -20.0%

ORL +44.4%

DAL -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DAL	NBA	ORL	DAL	NBA
this game	14.6	14.2	15.5	102.0	100.0	106.4
season	15.3	15.6		107.3	108.9
opponent	15.4	15.8		107.1	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.5	14.0	15.3	13.6	14.6
DAL	14.5	13.2	16.0	13.6	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mickael Pietrus	72	72	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.49	4	-2	6	14.7	14.1	0.58	14.5	13.6	0.83
Rashard Lewis	81	81	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.45	4	-2	6	14.6	14.4	0.24	14.3	14.1	0.23
Jameer Nelson	64	63	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.52	-1	3	-4	14.3	15.0	-0.69	13.6	15.4	-1.81
Dwight Howard	88	88	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.46	0	2	-2	14.6	14.6	-0.03	14.3	14.0	0.27
Keith Bogans	51	49	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.19	2	0	2	14.1	15.0	-0.86	13.2	15.3	-2.07
Hedo Turkoglu	56	57	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.20	-2	4	-6	14.9	14.2	0.72	14.8	13.5	1.28
Anthony Johnson	36	37	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.08	3	-1	4	15.0	14.3	0.69	15.4	13.6	1.81
Courtney Lee	21	22	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.01	0	2	-2	14.2	14.7	-0.47	14.4	14.2	0.22
Tony Battie	31	31	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	2	-2	14.5	14.6	-0.16	14.0	14.3	-0.30

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Dampier	51	51	0.28	-0.78	1.06	0.08	7	-9	16	14.3	14.2	0.11	15.1	14.0	1.06
Gerald Green	24	25	0.18	-0.68	0.86	0.00	6	-8	14	15.1	14.0	1.16	15.8	14.1	1.71
Brandon Bass	26	26	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.01	5	-7	12	14.7	14.1	0.66	15.5	14.2	1.32
Jason Kidd	79	78	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.26	10	-12	22	14.4	13.5	0.97	15.0	13.1	1.88
Josh Howard	78	79	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.41	-3	1	-4	14.2	14.3	-0.04	14.7	13.9	0.83
Jerry Stackhouse	43	43	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.21	-11	9	-20	13.9	14.5	-0.63	13.5	15.4	-1.88
Dirk Nowitzki	74	74	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.44	-7	5	-12	14.1	14.7	-0.66	14.2	15.5	-1.32
Jason Terry	76	75	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.45	-8	6	-14	14.0	15.1	-1.16	14.1	15.8	-1.71
DeSagana Diop	49	49	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.52	-9	7	-16	14.2	14.3	-0.11	14.0	15.1	-1.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.69,0.72,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.88,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.85,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.86,0.75,0.55,0.22,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 102, LAC 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.75,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.83,0.84,0.77,0.68,0.81,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.6,0.74,0.54,0.31,0.28,0	92.5%
MEM 91, UTA 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.83,0.84,0.91,0.8,0.75,0.82,0.91,0.85,0.85,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.86,0.71,0.32,0.09,0	92.3%
SEA 102, MEM 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.75,0.78,0.88,0.84,0.83,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.82,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.53,0.73,0.87,0.76,0.86,0.69,0.63,0.23,0.15,0	92.3%