NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Jersey Nets	94		Excitement	7.8 [263]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +53.5%
Miami Heat	99		Comeback	21.1 [111]		LVP	Vince Carter (NJN): -16.8%

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yi Jianlian	0.34	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.35,0.35	0.17	0.18	0.01	11	86%	0.39	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.06
Jarvis Hayes	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	14	43%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	-0.00	0.03	0.02	12	67%	0.15	5	-0.13	3	100%	0.02
Eduardo Najera	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Boone	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01	-0.05	0.03	0.00	5	36%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.10
Bobby Simmons	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,-0.04,-0.04	0.04	-0.09	-0.01	9	61%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Brook Lopez	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.17	0.02	-0.17	0.01	16	56%	0.11	4	-0.27	7	86%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.15,0.15,0.41,0.54	0.54	0.09	0.44	-0.01	18	69%	0.70	6	-0.16	12	92%	0.11
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.10	0.02	4	64%	0.13	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.05
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	11	68%	0.20	2	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	6	56%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	6	54%	0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Yakhouba Diawara	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	40%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	18	46%	0.01	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.6	29.4	17.5	27.3	2.7	38.5	142.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +20.5%

MIA +27.7%

NJN -17.6%

MIA +22.3%

NJN -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NJN	MIA	NBA	NJN	MIA	NBA
this game	16.9	16.0	15.5	106.8	113.8	106.4
season	16.0	16.0		106.5	105.9
opponent	15.7	15.5		105.7	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NJN	15.0	18.1	17.0	17.4	16.9
MIA	17.0	15.4	17.3	14.5	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trenton Hassell	23	22	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.05	0	-5	5	16.7	16.9	-0.23	18.7	15.2	3.53
Brook Lopez	28	25	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.12	-3	-2	-1	16.1	17.2	-1.06	15.6	16.2	-0.57
Eduardo Najera	19	18	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.01	-3	-2	-1	16.0	17.1	-1.10	16.4	16.0	0.43
Jarvis Hayes	44	42	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.03	-6	1	-7	16.0	17.7	-1.68	12.8	19.1	-6.26
Yi Jianlian	66	66	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.36	0	-5	5	16.7	17.2	-0.48	16.5	14.7	1.76
Bobby Simmons	58	60	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.39	-1	-4	3	17.9	14.9	2.93	16.0	16.2	-0.20
Keyon Dooling	70	68	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.43	-3	-2	-1	17.1	16.1	0.95	17.1	12.3	4.77
Josh Boone	60	62	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.48	-2	-3	1	17.2	16.1	1.06	16.2	15.6	0.57
Vince Carter	72	72	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.33	-7	2	-9	16.8	17.2	-0.47	15.7	17.6	-1.88

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Quinn	41	41	0.92	-0.42	1.34	0.42	17	-12	29	15.8	16.2	-0.41	16.5	17.2	-0.75
Michael Beasley	75	77	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.41	12	-7	19	16.2	15.1	1.12	16.9	16.5	0.47
Daequan Cook	62	62	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.41	8	-3	11	15.0	18.6	-3.58	17.0	16.4	0.63
Udonis Haslem	68	67	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.40	3	2	1	15.6	17.6	-1.96	16.8	17.0	-0.18
Dwyane Wade	77	78	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.30	6	-1	7	15.3	21.7	-6.39	16.9	16.3	0.64
Joel Anthony	29	31	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.10	-1	6	-7	17.6	15.3	2.26	16.2	17.2	-1.03
Yakhouba Diawara	36	35	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	-0.03	-9	14	-23	18.4	14.4	4.04	17.4	16.5	0.84
Mario Chalmers	47	49	-0.37	0.87	-1.25	-0.05	-11	16	-27	16.4	15.6	0.83	16.9	16.8	0.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.32,0.29,0.22,0.1,0.17,0.11,0.22,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.11,0.07,0.14,0.37,0.43,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 74, PHI 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.52,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.33,0.39,0.27,0.32,0.26,0.28,0.31,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.25,0.46,0.55,0.91,1	92.5%
NYK 87, CLE 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.29,0.38,0.34,0.18,0.1,0.12,0.22,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.19,0.28,0.43,0.42,1	91.7%
LAL 86, PHX 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.12,0.17,0.21,0.13,0.16,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.22,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.45,0.77,0.58,1	91.4%