NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	99		Excitement	6.2 [550]		MVP	Jason Williams (MIA): +25.1%
Miami Heat	113		Comeback	2.2 [252]		LVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): -10.2%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.03	-0.01	13	57%	0.17	2	-0.07	9	67%	-0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.00	5	87%	0.14	3	-0.08	6	67%	0.02
Marvin Williams	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.05	0.06	-0.05	12	42%	0.08	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Salim Stoudamire	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.02	0.04	11	61%	0.08	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	15	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Josh Childress	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	7	53%	0.02	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.00
Solomon Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Richardson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Acie Law	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	8	44%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Joe Johnson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	6	42%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.13	0.09	-0.03	9	94%	0.32	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Earl Barron	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.01	0.10	-0.04	14	45%	0.16	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Stephane Lasme	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.03	0.00	8	71%	0.12	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.01	12	67%	0.13	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.00	0.02	10	65%	0.05	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.02
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.05	0.04	9	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	15	52%	0.07	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	30%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Alexander Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	57%	0.03	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Kasib Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	9	33%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	1.7	27.7	27.7	29.3	2.6	26.5	139.2
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +44.6%

ATL -8.0%

ATL -1.8%

MIA +11.0%

MIA +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.9	16.6	15.4	108.8	122.8	105.7
season	15.4	16.0		104.2	99.0
opponent	15.4	15.7		108.3	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.3	14.2	16.2	15.0	14.9
MIA	17.7	14.1	15.8	19.2	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Solomon Jones	4	4	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-14	14	13.5	15.0	-1.47	22.2	16.3	5.94
Jeremy Richardson	4	4	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-14	14	13.5	15.0	-1.47	22.2	16.3	5.94
Acie Law	4	5	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-14	14	13.5	15.0	-1.47	20.8	16.3	4.48
Josh Smith	61	61	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.03	-3	-11	8	14.2	16.3	-2.14	17.3	15.1	2.21
Zaza Pachulia	56	57	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.09	0	-14	14	14.1	16.2	-2.06	15.9	17.7	-1.76
Salim Stoudamire	36	38	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.06	-4	-10	6	14.4	15.2	-0.85	15.6	17.3	-1.68
Josh Childress	53	56	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.05	-8	-6	-2	14.9	14.9	0.01	15.3	18.6	-3.32
Mike Bibby	53	51	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.03	-9	-5	-4	15.0	14.7	0.33	17.2	15.8	1.37
Joe Johnson	53	53	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.07	-8	-6	-2	15.3	14.4	0.91	17.5	15.3	2.23
Marvin Williams	73	72	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.10	-18	4	-22	15.3	13.3	2.02	16.4	17.1	-0.68
Al Horford	58	59	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.06	-20	6	-26	16.0	12.9	3.13	16.0	17.6	-1.62

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daequan Cook	71	68	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.06	20	-6	26	16.9	15.4	1.47	15.2	14.0	1.21
Mark Blount	61	62	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.12	14	0	14	16.7	16.4	0.32	15.0	14.6	0.41
Ricky Davis	71	72	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.00	11	3	8	16.2	17.7	-1.49	14.8	15.3	-0.46
Stephane Lasme	40	39	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.11	7	7	0	16.7	16.5	0.19	15.8	14.2	1.61
Chris Quinn	49	48	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.16	4	10	-6	17.8	15.2	2.55	15.0	14.8	0.17
Jason Williams	43	43	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.07	10	4	6	15.2	17.8	-2.55	14.8	15.0	-0.17
Earl Barron	44	44	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.05	6	8	-2	17.2	16.0	1.14	15.0	14.8	0.15
Joel Anthony	28	27	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.11	5	9	-4	15.9	16.8	-0.92	14.4	15.1	-0.70
Kasib Powell	42	42	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.11	-3	17	-20	16.6	16.6	0.01	14.6	15.2	-0.61
Alexander Johnson	11	10	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.02	-4	18	-22	14.8	16.8	-1.98	11.5	15.3	-3.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.33,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.62,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.85,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 89, CHI 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	95.0%
WAS 87, DEN 97	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.58,0.66,0.75,0.71,0.68,0.83,0.81,0.9,0.95,0.98,1,1,1	94.7%
SEA 89, CHH 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.49,0.55,0.64,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.85,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.91,0.96,0.98,1,1,1	93.3%