NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	85		Excitement	4.4 [920]		MVP	Derek Fisher (LAL): +15.4%
Los Angeles Lakers	106		Comeback	1.5 [1013]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -6.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ime Udoka	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	10	58%	0.10	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Tony Parker	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.01	15	59%	0.10	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.03
Jacque Vaughn	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	0.00	0.05	5	80%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	37%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.02	0.02	11	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	4	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Kurt Thomas	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	3	10%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.03
Tim Duncan	-0.07	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.03	-0.05	19	36%	-0.06	1	-0.01	7	57%	-0.02

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.04	0.00	9	78%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronny Turiaf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	-0.03	9	56%	0.05	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	12	52%	0.04	0	0.00	9	78%	-0.00
Sasha Vujacic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.05	7	57%	0.05	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	0.00	0.04	5	92%	0.04	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	15	47%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	14	59%	0.09	4	-0.08	6	83%	0.01
Luke Walton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ira Newble	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DJ Mbenga	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.7	3.8	29.6	18.4	29.2	3.0	28.0	139.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +45.9%

LAL +0.7%

LAL +6.5%

SAS -1.4%

SAS -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAL	NBA	SAS	LAL	NBA
this game	16.3	15.7	15.4	94.4	117.8	105.7
season	16.5	14.6		104.7	110.6
opponent	15.2	15.3		104.1	100.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.5	15.8	19.2	14.9	16.3
LAL	15.2	14.8	15.1	17.9	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fabricio Oberto	15	16	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.04	3	-24	27	16.7	16.2	0.47	17.7	15.3	2.39
Damon Stoudamire	32	33	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.07	-4	-17	13	14.0	17.5	-3.49	16.5	15.3	1.25
Matt Bonner	16	17	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.09	0	-21	21	11.9	17.2	-5.28	18.0	15.2	2.81
Michael Finley	65	63	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.01	-5	-16	11	16.8	15.0	1.71	15.5	16.2	-0.71
DerMarr Johnson	16	16	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.03	-7	-14	7	13.9	16.8	-2.85	19.0	15.0	3.99
Jacque Vaughn	40	40	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.19	-14	-7	-7	15.1	17.2	-2.03	17.5	14.3	3.29
Kurt Thomas	38	38	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.19	-15	-6	-9	15.7	16.7	-0.98	15.1	16.2	-1.07
Tony Parker	54	54	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.01	-11	-10	-1	17.3	14.7	2.55	14.5	17.5	-3.01
Tim Duncan	60	59	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.02	-14	-7	-7	17.2	14.5	2.72	15.2	16.8	-1.60
Ime Udoka	53	53	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.02	-13	-8	-5	16.5	16.0	0.47	14.7	17.2	-2.54
Bruce Bowen	61	61	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.24	-25	4	-29	17.7	13.2	4.53	15.2	16.8	-1.63

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lamar Odom	70	70	0.52	-0.02	0.53	-0.25	26	-5	31	15.6	16.0	-0.42	17.0	13.8	3.19
Kobe Bryant	59	60	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.06	14	7	7	15.2	16.8	-1.65	17.0	14.7	2.32
Pau Gasol	52	53	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.04	12	9	3	14.6	17.2	-2.62	17.6	14.4	3.13
Jordan Farmar	44	44	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.19	16	5	11	17.6	14.0	3.61	14.9	17.6	-2.77
Vladimir Radmanovic	43	44	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.09	5	16	-11	14.1	17.2	-3.12	17.9	14.7	3.15
Derek Fisher	46	46	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.08	5	16	-11	14.0	17.6	-3.61	17.6	14.9	2.77
Luke Walton	48	48	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.14	11	10	1	16.9	14.4	2.47	15.5	17.1	-1.62
Ronny Turiaf	33	32	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.13	8	13	-5	17.8	14.5	3.26	15.2	16.9	-1.74
Sasha Vujacic	41	40	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.17	9	12	-3	16.1	15.4	0.69	14.1	18.0	-3.83
Ira Newble	9	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	23	-25	20.1	15.2	4.88	10.6	16.8	-6.20
DJ Mbenga	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	20	-19	13.6	15.8	-2.25	9.8	16.7	-6.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.73,0.74,0.83,0.76,0.79,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 76, LAL 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.64,0.73,0.8,0.74,0.84,0.77,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
DEN 103, LAL 119	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.5,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.82,0.85,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.87,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
VAN 100, GSW 112	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.83,0.89,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	95.2%