NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	5.3 [738]		MVP	Shaquille O'Neal (LAL): +6.5%
Los Angeles Lakers	119		Comeback	1.4 [1190]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): -19.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.13	0.00	0.07	18	68%	0.09	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Terry Davis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	6	69%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Keon Clark	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	60%	0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
James Posey	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	8	44%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	6	38%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Tracy Murray	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	9	45%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	8	45%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Robert Pack	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	6	36%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Nick Van Exel	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.15	-0.06	-0.02	22	37%	-0.11	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.15	-0.01	0.08	21	74%	0.14	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02
Horace Grant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.02	6	65%	0.06	1	-0.01	5	100%	0.03
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	-0.02	-0.03	6	67%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Rider	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	6	69%	0.03	3	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Mark Madsen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ron Harper	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	7	71%	0.06	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.03	-0.01	0.06	23	60%	0.05	4	-0.10	6	100%	0.03
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.6	28.2	16.4	27.8	1.8	25.2	123.3
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +46.5%

LAL +12.4%

LAL +4.0%

DEN -14.0%

LAL +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAL	NBA	DEN	LAL	NBA
this game	15.5	14.7	15.5	108.4	124.0	100.9
season	15.2	15.6		101.4	106.8
opponent	15.2	15.2		101.8	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.0	15.0	15.1	15.0	15.5
LAL	15.1	14.4	13.7	15.6	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy Murray	15	15	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-18	20	14.1	15.7	-1.68	14.1	14.8	-0.72
Raef LaFrentz	30	30	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-14	12	16.0	15.2	0.80	14.7	14.7	0.03
Robert Pack	21	22	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.06	-8	-8	0	14.3	15.8	-1.48	12.3	15.4	-3.06
Antonio McDyess	69	71	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.14	-3	-13	10	16.0	14.0	1.99	15.4	12.6	2.86
Voshon Lenard	36	37	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.11	-12	-4	-8	16.7	14.7	1.99	13.1	15.7	-2.60
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	40	39	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.02	-8	-8	0	15.0	15.8	-0.75	15.5	14.1	1.32
James Posey	44	45	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.16	-4	-12	8	15.9	15.1	0.79	16.2	13.4	2.82
George McCloud	55	56	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.01	-10	-6	-4	15.0	16.1	-1.06	14.1	15.4	-1.28
Keon Clark	49	49	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.08	-13	-3	-10	14.5	16.5	-2.01	14.0	15.3	-1.30
Nick Van Exel	74	74	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.09	-8	-8	0	15.8	14.3	1.48	15.4	12.3	3.06
Terry Davis	42	42	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.04	-14	-2	-12	15.3	15.6	-0.27	14.1	15.1	-0.95

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille O'Neal	75	76	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.21	25	-9	34	14.6	15.0	-0.47	15.5	15.4	0.14
Kobe Bryant	77	78	0.50	-0.00	0.50	-0.20	24	-8	32	14.5	15.3	-0.73	15.7	14.4	1.38
Ron Harper	37	37	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.05	9	7	2	15.5	14.2	1.36	16.1	15.1	1.07
Horace Grant	52	53	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.09	7	9	-2	15.5	13.7	1.80	16.5	14.2	2.36
Brian Shaw	39	41	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.04	8	8	0	15.0	14.5	0.54	15.7	15.3	0.39
Isaiah Rider	57	54	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.00	8	8	0	14.5	15.0	-0.54	15.3	15.7	-0.39
Robert Horry	38	37	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.06	9	7	2	13.8	15.3	-1.51	13.8	16.5	-2.70
Mark Madsen	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	16	-16	13.3	14.8	-1.43	16.6	15.4	1.18
Devean George	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	16	-16	13.3	14.8	-1.43	16.6	15.4	1.18
Greg Foster	21	19	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.24	-9	25	-34	15.0	14.6	0.47	15.4	15.5	-0.14
Rick Fox	36	35	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.23	-11	27	-38	15.0	14.5	0.56	14.7	15.9	-1.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.5,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.82,0.85,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.87,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 85, LAL 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.73,0.74,0.83,0.76,0.79,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
VAN 100, GSW 112	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.83,0.89,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	95.4%
ORL 69, PHI 74	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.82,0.9,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%