NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	101		Excitement	7.9 [244]		MVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): +39.8%
Cleveland Cavaliers	98		Comeback	18.2 [15]		LVP	LeBron James (CLE): -31.4%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0.40	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.31,0.42,0.4	0.20	0.20	-0.00	11	80%	0.54	1	-0.14	8	87%	0.14
Joakim Noah	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.04	-0.01	5	77%	0.13	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Luol Deng	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	11	65%	0.09	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Andres Nocioni	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.00	12	52%	0.08	1	-0.06	5	80%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.07	0.00	4	60%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Kirk Hinrich	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	4	40%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Larry Hughes	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.06	-0.10	0.04	17	69%	0.13	5	-0.21	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Gray	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.01	18	55%	0.12	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.01
Delonte West	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.00	10	55%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.03	-0.00	5	40%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.07	0.00	6	43%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.08
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.03,0.03,-0.09	-0.09	0.03	-0.12	0.00	7	62%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.1,-0.31	-0.31	0.06	-0.37	0.00	24	53%	-0.17	3	-0.14	14	71%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	3.8	36.2	19.8	25.1	3.7	36.2	151.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +65.2%

CHI +40.5%

CLE -25.5%

CLE -28.7%

CLE -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	CLE	NBA	CHI	CLE	NBA
this game	14.7	16.5	15.4	111.0	105.4	105.7
season	15.0	16.4		102.2	104.0
opponent	15.2	15.5		104.1	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.3	16.6	14.1	15.3	14.7
CLE	13.4	14.1	18.6	21.4	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Gordon	55	57	0.87	-0.37	1.25	0.35	18	-15	33	14.6	15.0	-0.42	16.5	16.6	-0.03
Thabo Sefolosha	40	42	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.47	12	-9	21	15.5	14.1	1.39	17.9	15.4	2.49
Joakim Noah	74	74	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.43	3	0	3	14.9	14.0	0.92	17.8	11.8	5.97
Larry Hughes	86	89	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.42	2	1	1	14.7	14.8	-0.06	16.6	16.2	0.30
Luol Deng	59	59	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.47	-2	5	-7	14.2	15.8	-1.64	16.1	17.4	-1.29
Andres Nocioni	41	45	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.16	6	-3	9	14.3	15.1	-0.78	15.7	17.3	-1.64
Chris Duhon	4	5	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	5	-7	14.5	14.8	-0.26	11.4	16.8	-5.43
Aaron Gray	11	12	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.00	-3	6	-9	16.6	14.5	2.15	14.5	16.8	-2.34
Tyrus Thomas	47	46	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.04	-9	12	-21	14.5	15.0	-0.49	15.6	17.4	-1.80
Kirk Hinrich	38	36	-0.27	0.77	-1.05	0.02	-10	13	-23	15.0	14.6	0.39	16.8	16.4	0.44

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Brown	57	55	0.51	-1.01	1.51	0.18	11	-14	25	16.2	17.0	-0.80	15.5	13.6	1.88
Ben Wallace	59	57	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.14	5	-8	13	17.9	14.2	3.68	15.2	13.9	1.33
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	55	53	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.26	8	-11	19	17.6	15.0	2.56	15.7	13.4	2.28
Joe Smith	28	28	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.07	-4	1	-5	14.2	17.5	-3.27	13.1	15.5	-2.37
Delonte West	56	55	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.38	-3	0	-3	16.8	16.2	0.58	14.6	15.0	-0.42
LeBron James	73	73	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.46	-1	-2	1	16.8	15.5	1.32	14.3	16.4	-2.05
Anderson Varejao	42	42	-0.52	0.01	-0.53	-0.19	-11	8	-19	15.5	17.4	-1.89	14.3	15.1	-0.77
Daniel Gibson	45	43	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.29	-10	7	-17	15.5	17.5	-2.07	14.1	15.3	-1.24
Wally Szczerbiak	50	49	-0.89	0.39	-1.28	-0.60	-10	7	-17	16.6	16.5	0.13	15.0	14.5	0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.72,0.84,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.91,0.81,0.85,0.81,0.81,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.79,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.72,0.78,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 117, CHA 115	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.42,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.83,0.84,0.89,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.88,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.79,0.79,0.74,0.59,0.73,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.26,0	92.2%
GSW 124, UTA 123	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.75,0.82,0.84,0.8,0.75,0.83,0.79,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.85,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.59,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.72,0.68,0.42,0	92.2%
CLE 123, PHI 120	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.72,0.77,0.82,0.75,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.88,0.89,0.92,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.71,0.59,0.59,0.73,0.62,0.46,0.57,0.42,0	92.0%