NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	120		Excitement	9.4 [84]		MVP	Mike Bibby (ATL): +72.1%
Atlanta Hawks	127		Comeback	68.0 [11]		LVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): -11.2%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.26	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.28,0.26	-0.01	0.26	-0.02	20	50%	0.35	4	-0.10	8	100%	0.08
T.J. Ford	0.21	0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.27,0.22,0.33,0.21	0.03	0.16	-0.01	20	56%	0.25	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0.20	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.11	0.10	0.02	13	72%	0.27	2	-0.07	3	67%	0.03
Andrea Bargnani	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.12	0.05	0.01	12	71%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamario Moon	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	4	80%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Parker	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	-0.06	-0.00	8	75%	0.08	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Carlos Delfino	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.00	-0.05	0.01	7	50%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jose Calderon	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	5	27%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.72,0.72	0.72	0.13	0.61	0.02	18	70%	0.80	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.19,0.19,0.39	0.39	0.10	0.30	0.01	17	60%	0.45	1	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Al Horford	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.16,0.17	0.17	0.02	0.17	0.02	11	56%	0.24	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.05
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	4	82%	0.09	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Marvin Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.02	11	54%	0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	10	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Acie Law	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,-0.03,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	0.04	-0.15	0.00	21	61%	0.07	5	-0.18	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.1	1.7	27.2	15.6	24.1	1.8	36.2	1.8	15.0	148.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	1.9	17.1	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +84.6%

TOR -27.4%

ATL +5.9%

TOR -11.1%

TOR -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ATL	NBA	TOR	ATL	NBA
this game	16.3	14.5	15.4	117.6	121.0	105.7
season	15.6	15.4		108.5	104.2
opponent	15.7	15.7		107.2	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
TOR	17.2	13.8	15.7	18.1	17.3	16.3
ATL	14.8	16.2	15.6	13.2	10.6	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrea Bargnani	41	42	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.00	5	-12	17	14.4	17.5	-3.09	15.0	14.1	0.97
Jose Calderon	41	42	0.13	-0.63	0.75	0.04	3	-10	13	15.2	17.0	-1.86	15.4	13.9	1.48
Jason Kapono	35	37	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.07	-1	-6	5	13.3	17.8	-4.48	13.6	14.9	-1.30
Rasho Nesterovic	63	64	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.01	-3	-4	1	17.6	14.1	3.53	15.0	13.6	1.37
Jamario Moon	42	43	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.26	1	-8	9	17.0	15.8	1.14	15.9	13.5	2.40
Anthony Parker	70	72	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.32	-9	2	-11	17.4	13.9	3.42	14.2	15.2	-1.00
Chris Bosh	90	93	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.32	-9	2	-11	16.6	14.0	2.59	14.3	15.6	-1.26
T.J. Ford	61	63	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.33	-10	3	-13	17.0	15.2	1.86	13.9	15.4	-1.48
Carlos Delfino	67	69	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.36	-12	5	-17	15.7	17.3	-1.61	13.7	15.9	-2.21

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Johnson	96	93	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.26	12	-5	17	14.2	16.8	-2.53	16.4	15.6	0.80
Mike Bibby	93	91	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.23	12	-5	17	14.8	11.5	3.35	16.7	12.8	3.89
Josh Smith	88	84	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.40	4	3	1	14.3	15.2	-0.85	16.4	15.8	0.55
Marvin Williams	56	56	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.24	-2	9	-11	14.9	14.0	0.88	14.9	18.0	-3.05
Al Horford	69	67	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	6	-5	14.2	15.1	-0.90	16.8	15.2	1.61
Zaza Pachulia	31	31	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.10	0	7	-7	14.9	14.3	0.67	16.2	16.3	-0.18
Acie Law	8	8	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.04	-6	13	-19	16.7	14.3	2.47	15.0	16.4	-1.39
Josh Childress	49	47	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	-0.04	-4	11	-15	15.2	13.8	1.46	15.2	17.2	-1.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.3,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.31,0.33,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.09,0.03,0.1,0.04,0.07,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.29,0.09,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.09,0.54,0.31,0.28,0.55,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 97, DAL 98	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.6,0.57,0.64,0.6,0.65,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.32,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.46,0.37,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.25,0.26,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.2,0.15,0.17,0.29,0.22,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.07,0.54,0.32,0.46,0.77,0.58,1	91.5%
DAL 115, TOR 122	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.58,0.44,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.21,0.28,0.25,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.2,0.11,0.26,0.18,0.21,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.29,0.09,0.42,0.54,0.31,0.22,0.53,0.59,1	90.3%
CHA 107, DET 110	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.27,0.21,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.14,0.13,0.19,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.04,0.02,0.27,0.54,0.45,0.55,0.67,0.58,1	90.0%