NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	115		Excitement	8.2 [197]		MVP	Stephen Jackson (GSW): +54.4%
Los Angeles Lakers	111		Comeback	2.2 [277]		LVP	Lamar Odom (LAL): -22.4%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Jackson	0.54	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.54	0.12	0.38	-0.05	20	63%	0.58	2	-0.03	9	100%	0.10
Monta Ellis	0.23	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.23	0.08	0.15	-0.00	22	61%	0.29	3	-0.06	7	100%	0.09
Brandan Wright	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	67%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Andris Biedrins	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	3	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.04	0.02	10	52%	0.06	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Matt Barnes	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	12%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Kelenna Azubuike	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	9	41%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Baron Davis	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.04	-0.06	20	43%	0.00	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,-0.06,-0.13,-0.01,0.31	0.31	0.07	0.28	0.03	30	54%	0.37	3	-0.06	7	100%	0.08
Derek Fisher	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.04	0.01	10	76%	0.16	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.01	8	50%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Ronny Turiaf	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	10	64%	0.18	5	-0.17	5	80%	0.01
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	10	40%	-0.06	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
Luke Walton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	3	67%	-0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Vujacic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	5	8%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.03,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.11	-0.15	-0.04	19	42%	-0.11	5	-0.12	7	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.5	30.4	14.7	30.3	2.7	38.2	142.3
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +35.2%

GSW +14.1%

LAL -25.4%

GSW +22.1%

GSW +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	LAL	NBA	GSW	LAL	NBA
this game	13.9	13.5	15.4	109.5	105.7	105.7
season	13.5	14.6		109.8	110.6
opponent	15.2	15.1		104.1	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	11.2	13.8	16.1	15.0	13.9
LAL	13.6	13.8	12.1	14.4	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andris Biedrins	49	50	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.57	1	3	-2	13.6	14.3	-0.72	13.6	13.4	0.20
Monta Ellis	105	105	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.38	4	0	4	13.9	0.0	13.93	13.5	0.0	13.50
Kelenna Azubuike	62	62	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.18	9	-5	14	14.2	13.5	0.67	13.3	13.7	-0.38
Baron Davis	92	91	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.39	-2	6	-8	14.2	12.1	2.12	13.6	12.9	0.74
Stephen Jackson	95	96	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.54	-8	12	-20	14.1	12.8	1.25	13.1	17.2	-4.08
Matt Barnes	16	16	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.10	12	-8	20	11.7	14.3	-2.65	15.6	13.1	2.51
Brandan Wright	25	26	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.00	3	1	2	13.0	14.2	-1.28	12.5	13.8	-1.32
Al Harrington	81	79	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.05	1	3	-2	14.3	12.8	1.43	13.8	12.7	1.07

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronny Turiaf	51	51	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.09	5	-9	14	13.7	13.3	0.37	14.0	13.9	0.09
Jordan Farmar	34	32	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.16	-5	1	-6	13.2	13.6	-0.43	14.7	13.6	1.08
Sasha Vujacic	36	35	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.20	-9	5	-14	14.0	13.2	0.73	14.3	13.8	0.53
Luke Walton	59	57	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.18	-2	-2	0	12.9	14.2	-1.25	14.4	13.4	0.99
Derek Fisher	71	73	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.54	1	-5	6	13.6	13.2	0.43	13.6	14.7	-1.08
Kobe Bryant	101	101	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.35	-6	2	-8	13.6	10.0	3.63	14.0	12.7	1.23
Vladimir Radmanovic	80	82	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.55	-1	-3	2	13.5	13.5	-0.03	13.5	15.5	-1.98
Lamar Odom	93	94	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.56	-3	-1	-2	13.4	14.2	-0.76	13.8	14.8	-0.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.28,0.26,0.15,0.25,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.46,0.6,0.64,0.37,0.13,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 117, IND 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.22,0.16,0.15,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.33,0.29,0.22,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.37,0.26,0.29,0.6,0.45,0.45,0.05,0.01,0	91.3%
WAS 102, DAL 95	0.5,0.51,0.43,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.34,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.17,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.28,0.32,0.41,0.24,0.4,0.46,0.28,0.32,0.04,0	91.3%
NYK 103, ORL 98	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.28,0.23,0.25,0.15,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.33,0.47,0.21,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.21,0.1,0.09,0	90.5%