NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	83		Excitement	7.4 [317]		MVP	Rodney Carney (PHI): +30.3%
Detroit Pistons	82		Comeback	2.8 [178]		LVP	Samuel Dalembert (PHI): -19.8%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Carney	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.13	0.17	-0.00	10	80%	0.30	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.02	6	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	8	50%	-0.06
Jason Smith	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thaddeus Young	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.02	0.01	8	62%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	11	45%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	22	39%	-0.07	1	-0.03	12	75%	0.01
Lou Williams	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18	-0.12	-0.07	-0.01	10	14%	-0.18	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Samuel Dalembert	-0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.12	-0.09	-0.01	9	33%	-0.02	4	-0.18	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.06	0.00	2	100%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.04	-0.02	13	46%	0.08	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.04	0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	18	47%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	7	45%	-0.01	2	-0.07	6	67%	-0.05
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.00	-0.10	0.01	8	50%	-0.05	1	-0.06	12	50%	-0.08
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.13	-0.13	0.06	-0.16	0.03	9	62%	-0.11	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	2.4	30.4	16.8	26.3	2.7	39.1	143.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +16.4%

DET -8.0%

PHI +14.6%

PHI +22.6%

PHI +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	DET	NBA	PHI	DET	NBA
this game	17.7	18.1	15.4	102.5	102.5	105.7
season	15.2	16.8		104.0	108.8
opponent	15.8	16.2		101.3	104.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	18.0	18.2	16.4	18.2	17.7
DET	21.0	16.0	18.7	16.9	18.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney Carney	38	37	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.47	7	-6	13	18.1	17.4	0.71	17.5	18.6	-1.04
Andre Iguodala	76	76	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.48	2	-1	3	17.3	23.6	-6.28	18.2	15.5	2.71
Samuel Dalembert	70	68	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.46	1	0	1	17.8	17.3	0.50	18.6	15.1	3.52
Lou Williams	39	39	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.48	0	1	-1	18.2	17.3	0.87	16.9	19.2	-2.30
Jason Smith	35	34	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.04	3	-2	5	18.0	17.5	0.57	18.2	18.0	0.28
Reggie Evans	47	48	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.10	0	1	-1	18.1	17.1	0.96	18.1	18.0	0.18
Thaddeus Young	44	43	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.29	-7	8	-15	17.5	17.9	-0.45	18.4	17.7	0.69
Kevin Ollie	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	1	-1	17.0	17.7	-0.73	10.5	18.3	-7.77
Andre Miller	53	53	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.02	-1	2	-3	17.2	18.6	-1.44	18.3	17.6	0.73

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	55	55	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.20	10	-11	21	18.7	16.8	1.91	18.0	17.1	0.87
Arron Afflalo	6	6	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.07	-3	2	-5	20.0	17.9	2.08	17.3	17.7	-0.40
Amir Johnson	9	9	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	1	-3	14.2	18.6	-4.34	16.3	17.9	-1.54
Rasheed Wallace	56	58	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.50	14	-15	29	17.8	18.7	-0.96	18.1	16.8	1.23
Richard Hamilton	52	53	-0.10	-0.41	0.31	-0.45	12	-13	25	18.1	18.1	-0.05	18.0	17.1	0.86
Rodney Stuckey	26	27	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.14	-3	2	-5	15.4	19.4	-3.93	18.7	17.2	1.44
Chauncey Billups	54	54	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.33	2	-3	5	19.4	15.4	3.93	17.2	18.7	-1.44
Tayshaun Prince	65	65	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.43	4	-5	9	18.9	14.4	4.52	18.0	16.6	1.34
Juan Dixon	23	22	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.02	-10	9	-19	17.0	18.5	-1.45	17.1	17.9	-0.84
Jason Maxiell	15	16	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.08	-9	8	-17	19.1	17.8	1.22	18.6	17.5	1.15
Theo Ratliff	24	23	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.03	-15	14	-29	18.7	17.8	0.96	16.8	18.1	-1.23
Jarvis Hayes	15	17	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.32	-5	4	-9	14.4	18.9	-4.52	15.6	18.2	-2.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.4,0.43,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.63,0.47,0.29,0.33,0.25,0.17,0.05,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 91, DET 86	0.5,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.21,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.24,0.28,0.39,0.21,0.23,0.1,0	92.6%
SEA 105, MEM 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.32,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.34,0.31,0.21,0.25,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.62,0.47,0.31,0.35,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.14,0.08,0	92.3%
LAL 102, UTA 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.2,0.24,0.28,0.36,0.37,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.35,0.33,0.38,0.11,0.01,0,0	91.5%