NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	97		Excitement	6.5 [475]		MVP	Nick Young (WAS): +14.7%
Washington Wizards	105		Comeback	1.2 [909]		LVP	Charlie Bell (MIL): -12.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Bogut	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.00	0.03	-0.03	22	49%	0.12	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.02
Royal Ivey	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.01	6	75%	0.07	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Simmons	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	6	36%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Charlie Villanueva	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.04	-0.00	20	52%	0.08	3	-0.11	6	100%	0.04
Michael Redd	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.13,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.04	0.04	18	57%	0.13	7	-0.19	10	80%	0.01
Dan Gadzuric	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	0.01	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.05	-0.03	10	27%	-0.06	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.14,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.07	0.03	15	69%	0.22	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Brendan Haywood	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.00	11	58%	0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Andray Blatche	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	9	62%	0.12	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.04
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.01	7	55%	0.05	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Darius Songaila	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.04	0.06	-0.02	14	38%	0.05	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	2	37%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Dominic McGuire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	0.03	-0.03	22	52%	0.12	8	-0.16	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	1.8	26.3	15.7	27.2	2.3	33.4	129.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +26.5%

WAS +6.2%

MIL -6.8%

WAS +21.9%

WAS +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	WAS	NBA	MIL	WAS	NBA
this game	14.6	15.2	15.4	101.0	108.2	105.7
season	15.8	16.1		103.4	106.8
opponent	15.5	15.2		107.4	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.5	18.4	12.2	13.0	14.6
WAS	16.5	14.3	16.1	14.1	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Desmond Mason	65	66	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.15	8	-16	24	13.7	16.6	-2.92	15.7	14.3	1.34
Royal Ivey	64	65	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.15	1	-9	10	14.4	15.1	-0.73	16.3	13.1	3.20
Bobby Simmons	13	12	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.04	-7	-1	-6	20.2	13.7	6.42	13.9	15.4	-1.51
Dan Gadzuric	27	27	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.06	-7	-1	-6	16.1	14.0	2.10	16.0	14.9	1.11
Charlie Villanueva	84	86	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.23	-4	-4	0	14.3	16.7	-2.45	14.7	19.5	-4.76
Andrew Bogut	81	81	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.24	-5	-3	-2	14.4	15.6	-1.18	15.5	13.7	1.86
Michael Redd	89	90	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.27	-8	0	-8	14.4	17.7	-3.35	15.1	17.3	-2.21
Charlie Bell	57	58	-0.80	0.30	-1.10	-0.27	-18	10	-28	15.1	13.9	1.15	14.1	16.9	-2.86

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Young	56	55	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.19	21	-13	34	13.9	17.1	-3.18	15.3	13.7	1.61
Roger Mason Jr.	34	35	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.22	7	1	6	14.9	15.4	-0.59	15.8	13.9	1.93
Brendan Haywood	50	48	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.02	12	-4	16	14.7	15.8	-1.15	15.0	14.2	0.79
Antawn Jamison	75	75	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.10	8	0	8	15.5	14.3	1.25	13.9	17.3	-3.43
Andray Blatche	45	45	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.00	10	-2	12	15.1	15.4	-0.32	16.3	13.1	3.13
DeShawn Stevenson	68	68	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.26	-4	12	-16	15.8	14.0	1.76	13.6	17.1	-3.58
Darius Songaila	63	62	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.35	-9	17	-26	16.2	13.4	2.86	14.4	15.0	-0.66
Antonio Daniels	65	63	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.13	-2	10	-12	15.6	14.6	1.01	13.7	16.2	-2.50
Dominic McGuire	29	29	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	11	-14	14.6	15.5	-0.88	15.3	14.3	1.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.75,0.72,0.82,0.84,0.79,0.72,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.62,0.53,0.68,0.86,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 86, LAC 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.74,0.77,0.88,0.78,0.78,0.63,0.69,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.7,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.72,0.89,0.91,0.91,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1	93.9%
WAS 64, CHI 78	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.65,0.66,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.67,0.85,0.89,0.89,0.83,0.93,0.99,1,1,1	93.5%
ORL 77, MIL 89	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.71,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.76,0.77,0.82,0.82,0.76,0.66,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.66,0.72,0.76,0.68,0.79,0.85,0.95,0.97,0.96,1,1,1	93.2%