NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	108		Excitement	2.6 [1241]		MVP	Rasho Nesterovic (TOR): +7.3%
Miami Heat	83		Comeback	1.3 [534]		LVP	Alexander Johnson (MIA): -9.5%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasho Nesterovic	0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	12	67%	0.11	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	-0.00	6	75%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Parker	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.02	10	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.01	-0.03	9	62%	0.03	3	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Jamario Moon	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.08	0.01	0.06	11	61%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Andrea Bargnani	0.03	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	10	55%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Primoz Brezec	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	4	60%	0.04	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.00
Jason Kapono	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.06	0.00	0.06	5	80%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maceo Baston	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	83%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Joey Graham	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	8	39%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Kris Humphries	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	4	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	-0.00	-0.02	9	57%	0.06	1	-0.00	10	70%	0.01
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.11	0.00	0.06	11	81%	0.07	3	-0.02	4	100%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	6	67%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Barron	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	10	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	7	36%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	7	31%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.02,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	0.01	0.03	13	52%	0.04	5	-0.11	5	60%	-0.01
Alexander Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.13	-0.01	-0.04	3	0%	-0.05	4	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.0	27.1	16.7	28.5	1.8	30.2	130.3
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +24.7%

TOR +3.3%

TOR +0.6%

TOR +18.0%

TOR +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	16.5	14.8	15.4	116.1	91.2	105.7
season	15.6	16.0		108.5	99.0
opponent	15.4	15.7		108.3	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.6	17.1	18.4	15.1	16.5
MIA	15.7	14.2	14.4	14.9	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Parker	57	55	0.56	-0.06	0.63	-0.20	26	-1	27	17.1	15.6	1.53	14.5	15.2	-0.62
Rasho Nesterovic	56	54	0.56	-0.06	0.62	-0.20	26	-1	27	17.2	15.4	1.90	14.8	14.8	0.06
Jose Calderon	50	48	0.56	-0.06	0.61	-0.21	26	-1	27	17.0	15.9	1.05	14.8	14.8	-0.04
Jamario Moon	52	49	0.44	0.06	0.39	-0.23	23	2	21	16.6	16.4	0.14	15.0	14.5	0.50
Andrea Bargnani	41	39	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.05	14	11	3	17.0	16.1	0.99	14.7	14.8	-0.08
Kris Humphries	36	36	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.27	14	11	3	15.7	17.0	-1.21	15.3	14.5	0.85
Carlos Delfino	46	48	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.00	2	23	-21	17.1	15.9	1.22	14.9	14.7	0.27
Maceo Baston	11	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	28	-31	14.0	16.8	-2.83	11.4	15.2	-3.81
Joey Graham	11	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	28	-31	14.0	16.8	-2.83	11.4	15.2	-3.81
Primoz Brezec	25	26	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.11	2	23	-21	16.2	16.6	-0.35	16.6	14.1	2.55
Jason Kapono	37	37	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.03	-1	26	-27	15.4	17.2	-1.90	14.8	14.8	-0.06
T.J. Ford	43	43	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.04	-1	26	-27	15.9	17.0	-1.05	14.8	14.8	0.04

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Banks	55	55	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-27	29	14.9	14.6	0.30	16.2	16.9	-0.68
Chris Quinn	24	24	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.08	-3	-22	19	14.9	14.7	0.17	15.1	17.0	-1.90
Ricky Davis	71	70	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.06	-7	-18	11	14.6	15.4	-0.78	16.5	16.4	0.14
Earl Barron	64	63	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.14	-11	-14	3	15.2	13.9	1.34	16.0	17.5	-1.43
Mark Blount	32	35	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.05	-9	-16	7	13.8	15.3	-1.56	16.4	16.6	-0.20
Shawn Marion	61	64	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.13	-18	-7	-11	14.5	15.4	-0.86	17.2	14.8	2.42
Dwyane Wade	61	62	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.10	-18	-7	-11	14.8	14.7	0.14	17.2	15.0	2.19
Jason Williams	36	38	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.28	-27	2	-29	14.6	14.9	-0.30	16.9	16.2	0.68
Alexander Johnson	51	54	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	0.48	-34	9	-43	15.4	14.0	1.37	16.0	17.2	-1.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.2,0.16,0.17,0.22,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 105, OKC 87	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.23,0.33,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.21,0.23,0.25,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
LAC 101, HOU 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.14,0.12,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%
MIL 115, NJN 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.23,0.24,0.25,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.23,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%