NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	86		Excitement	7.4 [313]		MVP	LeBron James (CLE): +18.4%
Cleveland Cavaliers	95		Comeback	6.5 [287]		LVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): -16.4%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joakim Noah	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.04	0.02	4	69%	0.09	0	0.00	8	87%	0.07
Kirk Hinrich	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04	-0.01	0.01	-0.04	4	62%	0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	67%	0.12	3	-0.10	6	67%	-0.01
Aaron Gray	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Andres Nocioni	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.03	-0.01	4	25%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.00	-0.12	0.00	20	50%	-0.04	2	-0.08	6	83%	0.03
Drew Gooden	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	10	46%	-0.04	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	13	33%	-0.13	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Ben Gordon	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.06	-0.02	13	41%	0.03	5	-0.20	1	100%	0.01

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.07	0.12	0.01	29	56%	0.24	3	-0.06	8	87%	0.02
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.00	0.07	-0.00	7	50%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	8	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.09	-0.04	0.04	13	61%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Dwayne Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	0.02	6	75%	0.06	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	5	36%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.07
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	6	25%	0.00	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	6	35%	-0.06	1	-0.03	8	37%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	3.4	37.5	17.8	27.3	3.5	34.4	151.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +43.7%

CHI -22.5%

CLE +7.0%

CLE +24.7%

CHI -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	CLE	NBA	CHI	CLE	NBA
this game	13.6	17.0	15.4	92.5	100.0	105.7
season	15.0	16.4		102.2	104.0
opponent	15.2	15.5		104.1	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.7	12.9	13.3	13.6	13.6
CLE	15.3	16.4	16.7	19.8	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrus Thomas	48	48	0.25	-0.75	1.00	0.10	5	-14	19	13.1	14.2	-1.03	17.2	16.7	0.51
Aaron Gray	9	9	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.03	3	-12	15	13.3	13.7	-0.32	19.0	16.8	2.23
Chris Duhon	11	10	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-8	7	13.5	13.6	-0.09	15.7	17.1	-1.43
Ben Gordon	58	57	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.15	3	-12	15	13.8	13.3	0.45	16.1	18.3	-2.27
Luol Deng	53	56	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.18	-5	-4	-1	13.4	14.0	-0.62	16.6	17.5	-0.86
Andres Nocioni	42	40	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.14	-8	-1	-7	14.0	13.3	0.69	17.5	16.6	0.94
Kirk Hinrich	35	38	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.09	-12	3	-15	13.3	13.8	-0.45	18.3	16.1	2.27
Larry Hughes	82	85	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.24	-8	-1	-7	13.6	13.5	0.09	17.1	15.7	1.43
Joakim Noah	63	66	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.19	-12	3	-15	13.8	13.3	0.48	17.2	16.4	0.81
Drew Gooden	64	66	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.27	-10	1	-11	13.9	13.1	0.76	16.2	18.7	-2.41

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	78	78	0.95	-0.45	1.39	0.33	21	-12	33	16.5	19.1	-2.60	14.0	11.9	2.09
Ben Wallace	72	69	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.39	12	-3	15	17.1	16.7	0.32	13.8	13.1	0.67
Delonte West	76	73	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.28	12	-3	15	16.8	17.8	-1.08	13.9	12.4	1.50
Joe Smith	48	47	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.20	5	4	1	17.9	16.0	1.90	13.5	13.8	-0.31
Wally Szczerbiak	51	49	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.14	6	3	3	17.5	16.4	1.02	13.3	14.0	-0.71
Anderson Varejao	67	67	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.02	5	4	1	16.3	18.7	-2.41	13.8	13.2	0.55
Devin Brown	55	54	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.11	-6	15	-21	17.2	16.7	0.44	13.6	13.7	-0.16
Dwayne Jones	3	2	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	-0.07	-4	13	-17	16.0	17.0	-1.01	9.5	13.7	-4.21
Damon Jones	25	26	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	-0.22	-6	15	-21	17.7	16.7	1.01	12.2	14.2	-1.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.63,0.56,0.38,0.34,0.21,0.13,0.28,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.55,0.63,0.94,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 111, SAS 117	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.62,0.53,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.51,0.6,0.54,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.63,0.56,0.48,0.34,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.16,0.35,0.47,0.62,0.79,0.94,0.98,1	92.1%
PHI 98, MIA 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.46,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.54,0.59,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.56,0.6,0.5,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.46,0.85,0.86,1,1	91.2%
ORL 96, SAC 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.33,0.27,0.36,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.85,0.99,1,1	91.0%