NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	113		Excitement	7.4 [309]		MVP	Larry Hughes (CHI): +22.3%
Indiana Pacers	107		Comeback	4.4 [261]		LVP	Danny Granger (IND): -12.4%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Larry Hughes	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.22	0.12	0.10	-0.00	19	60%	0.25	1	-0.03	10	60%	-0.00
Andres Nocioni	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16	0.05	0.10	-0.01	9	50%	0.16	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Luol Deng	0.04	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	12	59%	0.09	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.01	3	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Joakim Noah	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	5	69%	0.07	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.04
Drew Gooden	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	0.00	9	43%	0.03	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	6	50%	0.03	3	-0.07	2	0%	-0.00
Tyrus Thomas	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	8	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	16	41%	-0.02	3	-0.06	5	60%	-0.03

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Travis Diener	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.07	0.11	-0.02	0.03	10	73%	0.14	2	-0.07	10	100%	0.05
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.02	0.03	12	62%	0.14	3	-0.08	16	81%	0.03
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.01	-0.00	10	73%	0.16	4	-0.12	6	67%	-0.03
David Harrison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	40%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Stephen Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kareem Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.03	0.00	5	67%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Shawne Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	7	31%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	10	32%	-0.04	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Danny Granger	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	0.01	16	52%	-0.01	5	-0.12	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.6	2.0	34.2	15.4	27.5	2.5	41.2	151.3
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +31.0%

IND -1.5%

CHI +0.5%

CHI +22.1%

IND -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	IND	NBA	CHI	IND	NBA
this game	13.7	14.7	15.4	111.9	104.9	105.7
season	15.0	13.8		102.2	104.5
opponent	15.2	15.5		105.6	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	12.7	13.0	15.6	13.6	13.7
IND	15.6	16.3	15.7	11.7	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Larry Hughes	71	69	0.84	-0.34	1.19	0.23	21	-15	36	13.8	13.3	0.55	14.5	15.1	-0.60
Ben Gordon	58	60	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.33	8	-2	10	14.2	12.9	1.34	14.7	14.7	-0.04
Andres Nocioni	48	47	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.31	7	-1	8	12.9	14.3	-1.44	13.3	15.9	-2.59
Drew Gooden	51	52	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.19	10	-4	14	14.8	12.5	2.24	14.3	15.1	-0.83
Luol Deng	76	76	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.17	4	2	2	14.1	12.4	1.61	14.4	15.8	-1.41
Joakim Noah	54	55	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.13	5	1	4	13.6	13.7	-0.09	15.4	13.9	1.49
Aaron Gray	15	15	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	5	-4	13.2	13.7	-0.53	17.5	14.2	3.30
Tyrus Thomas	42	43	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.16	-9	15	-24	13.6	13.7	-0.10	15.3	14.3	0.97
Kirk Hinrich	34	36	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.06	-7	13	-20	12.6	14.2	-1.56	15.7	14.2	1.60
Thabo Sefolosha	56	57	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	0.06	-10	16	-26	12.8	14.7	-1.95	14.5	15.0	-0.51

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawne Williams	13	14	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-7	8	16.5	14.4	2.09	12.5	13.8	-1.34
Stephen Graham	4	4	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-6	6	6.2	15.1	-8.81	2.0	14.1	-12.13
Troy Murphy	62	62	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.05	1	-7	8	15.1	14.2	0.89	14.5	12.3	2.28
David Harrison	18	18	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.02	-6	0	-6	15.7	14.5	1.15	14.4	13.5	0.96
Mike Dunleavy	86	85	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.24	0	-6	6	14.3	17.1	-2.78	14.2	11.0	3.15
Danny Granger	83	82	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.32	0	-6	6	15.1	12.8	2.30	13.8	12.8	1.00
Jeff Foster	77	74	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.33	-1	-5	4	14.7	14.8	-0.06	13.5	14.0	-0.47
Kareem Rush	38	38	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.06	-12	6	-18	14.5	14.8	-0.34	11.7	14.8	-3.11
Marquis Daniels	51	51	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.29	-7	1	-8	14.6	14.8	-0.14	14.2	13.1	1.06
Travis Diener	78	77	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.33	-6	0	-6	14.5	15.3	-0.75	13.6	14.0	-0.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.62,0.63,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.5,0.3,0.25,0.17,0.15,0.1,0.24,0.07,0.1,0.02,0.05,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 97, CHH 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.7,0.64,0.67,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.54,0.38,0.25,0.33,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0	93.2%
MEM 98, LAC 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.64,0.54,0.46,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.52,0.44,0.47,0.52,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.21,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0	93.0%
DAL 100, NOP 91	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.69,0.76,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.4,0.38,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0	92.9%