NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	102		Excitement	6.4 [493]		MVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): +39.6%
New Jersey Nets	92		Comeback	3.1 [530]		LVP	Marcus Williams (NJN): -8.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0.40	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.15,0.22,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.4	0.12	0.29	0.01	13	74%	0.46	3	-0.07	8	87%	0.03
Rashard Lewis	0.27	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.19	0.10	0.03	10	78%	0.27	0	0.00	12	67%	-0.01
Keyon Dooling	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1	0.09	0.03	0.02	6	78%	0.12	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.05
Maurice Evans	0.09	0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	-0.00	12	58%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	40%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	0.00	10	49%	0.08	4	-0.13	15	47%	-0.12
Brian Cook	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	6	21%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.05	0.12	-0.06	23	54%	0.25	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Josh Boone	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.06	0.03	6	86%	0.12	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	7	57%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	42%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Bostjan Nachbar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	12	46%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	16	53%	0.06	3	-0.10	6	100%	0.05
Marcus Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	0.01	0.01	13	38%	-0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	1.8	28.0	15.4	24.5	2.3	41.6	140.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +35.0%

ORL +12.8%

ORL +5.6%

NJN -5.2%

ORL +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	NJN	NBA	ORL	NJN	NBA
this game	14.8	15.7	15.4	108.5	96.8	105.7
season	15.1	15.4		109.9	101.8
opponent	15.5	15.6		107.1	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.7	15.0	16.9	14.0	14.8
NJN	14.0	15.6	18.1	15.5	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashard Lewis	75	77	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.33	11	-1	12	14.3	16.7	-2.44	15.8	15.1	0.78
Keyon Dooling	53	53	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.10	15	-5	20	14.2	15.6	-1.46	15.4	16.1	-0.74
Keith Bogans	48	48	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.13	11	-1	12	14.5	15.1	-0.63	15.5	15.9	-0.33
Hedo Turkoglu	80	78	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.24	6	4	2	15.0	13.6	1.34	16.0	14.2	1.84
Dwight Howard	80	81	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.23	3	7	-4	14.9	14.3	0.59	15.7	15.4	0.38
Adonal Foyle	14	14	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.03	7	3	4	14.3	14.9	-0.59	15.4	15.7	-0.38
Maurice Evans	47	49	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.07	-1	11	-12	15.2	14.4	0.85	15.5	15.9	-0.44
Jameer Nelson	41	42	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.11	-5	15	-20	15.6	14.2	1.46	16.1	15.4	0.74
Brian Cook	32	33	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.15	3	7	-4	15.3	14.5	0.75	15.1	16.0	-0.86

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeSagana Diop	19	17	0.27	-0.77	1.04	0.21	2	-12	14	14.1	16.1	-2.04	17.5	14.2	3.28
Nenad Krstic	29	31	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.09	4	-14	18	14.9	16.0	-1.08	14.3	15.0	-0.74
Sean Williams	10	9	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-8	6	18.9	15.3	3.59	14.9	14.8	0.11
Trenton Hassell	27	27	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.09	-9	-1	-8	15.7	15.7	-0.02	16.1	14.3	1.81
Darrell Armstrong	34	32	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.16	-12	2	-14	14.4	16.4	-2.03	13.5	15.5	-2.00
Marcus Williams	68	69	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-10	10	15.6	15.9	-0.34	14.6	15.4	-0.89
Bostjan Nachbar	68	66	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.00	-12	2	-14	15.5	16.1	-0.65	14.7	15.0	-0.30
Richard Jefferson	76	75	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.35	-6	-4	-2	16.4	12.7	3.75	15.4	12.4	3.03
Vince Carter	84	83	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.31	-9	-1	-8	15.9	13.9	2.01	14.6	16.5	-1.99
Josh Boone	60	61	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.45	-6	-4	-2	15.8	15.5	0.36	14.3	15.6	-1.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.5,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.41,0.52,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.53,0.76,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.54,0.39,0.11,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 103, NYK 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.28,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.53,0.77,0.59,0.66,0.61,0.47,0.29,0.16,0.05,0	92.1%
CHI 96, PHI 89	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.71,0.69,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.53,0.58,0.25,0.22,0.06,0.02,0	91.4%
NYK 89, WAS 86	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.45,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.55,0.45,0.47,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.57,0.63,0.79,0.54,0.39,0.32,0.21,0.08,0.05,0	91.4%