NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	98		Excitement	3.4 [1094]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +13.8%
Memphis Grizzlies	83		Comeback	1.2 [1130]		LVP	Hakim Warrick (MEM): -10.3%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.20	0.00	0.07	9	90%	0.16	2	-0.02	12	83%	0.01
Jason Terry	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.01	0.02	15	73%	0.14	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	71%	0.05	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.02
Malik Allen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	86%	0.02	3	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	60%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Devean George	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.00	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.13	0.01	-0.09	27	37%	-0.01	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	4	87%	0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andre Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	11	46%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Darko Milicic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	15	46%	-0.00	2	-0.02	9	78%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	6	50%	0.02	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Javaris Crittenton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	0.00	0.05	6	62%	-0.02	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Juan Carlos Navarro	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	13	39%	-0.06	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Hakim Warrick	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	16	37%	-0.06	3	-0.04	8	62%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.8	29.0	15.7	27.3	2.6	28.0	131.5
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +37.7%

DAL +3.7%

DAL +10.5%

MEM -2.4%

DAL +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MEM	NBA	DAL	MEM	NBA
this game	14.0	16.5	15.4	103.2	88.3	105.7
season	16.1	14.9		108.9	103.3
opponent	14.9	15.4		109.9	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.1	13.4	12.2	16.4	14.0
MEM	18.0	17.1	15.5	15.5	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	74	73	0.51	-0.01	0.51	-0.08	20	-5	25	13.5	15.6	-2.03	16.7	15.9	0.77
Josh Howard	69	68	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.19	23	-8	31	14.0	13.8	0.20	18.0	12.6	5.42
Jason Kidd	64	64	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.10	17	-2	19	13.3	15.4	-2.07	16.9	15.7	1.13
Jason Terry	72	73	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.04	15	0	15	14.0	14.0	-0.07	16.2	17.4	-1.13
Erick Dampier	53	52	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.26	20	-5	25	14.6	13.2	1.47	17.6	15.1	2.54
Jerry Stackhouse	39	38	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.18	-2	17	-19	13.2	14.6	-1.42	16.1	16.7	-0.62
Juwan Howard	29	29	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.24	-4	19	-23	12.9	14.5	-1.62	13.8	17.7	-3.96
Devean George	31	30	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.16	-2	17	-19	15.4	13.3	2.07	15.7	16.9	-1.13
Brandon Bass	34	34	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.22	-6	21	-27	14.9	13.5	1.44	16.7	16.4	0.37
Malik Allen	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	17	-19	17.0	13.8	3.18	9.2	16.8	-7.57
Jose Juan Barea	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	19	-23	17.0	13.8	3.18	8.4	17.0	-8.56

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Brown	5	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-19	23	8.4	17.0	-8.56	17.0	13.8	3.18
Brian Cardinal	39	39	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.39	13	-28	41	15.3	17.3	-1.99	15.4	13.0	2.32
Kwame Brown	59	58	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.21	1	-16	17	17.0	15.7	1.25	14.6	13.1	1.53
Kyle Lowry	57	58	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.23	1	-16	17	15.7	17.8	-2.12	14.5	13.2	1.27
Mike Conley	62	63	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.20	-2	-13	11	17.1	15.4	1.71	13.9	14.2	-0.35
Juan Carlos Navarro	41	43	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.29	-19	4	-23	16.2	16.7	-0.54	13.1	14.7	-1.64
Javaris Crittenton	36	35	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.04	-9	-6	-3	15.6	17.1	-1.49	15.1	13.3	1.78
Darko Milicic	30	32	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.27	-20	5	-25	16.9	16.3	0.64	12.4	14.8	-2.34
Rudy Gay	76	75	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.07	-16	1	-17	16.7	15.8	0.82	13.1	17.3	-4.26
Hakim Warrick	65	67	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	0.28	-28	13	-41	17.9	13.4	4.51	13.9	14.3	-0.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 104, TOR 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.23,0.29,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.2,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.16,0.15,0.08,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.01,0,0,0	96.3%
PHX 102, SEA 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	96.3%
DEN 99, PHX 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.28,0.21,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0	96.2%