NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	101		Excitement	9.5 [80]		MVP	Wally Szczerbiak (SEA): +49.6%
Seattle SuperSonics	108		Comeback	19.0 [132]		LVP	Rudy Gay (MEM): -42.4%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Cardinal	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.07	0.10	0.00	4	80%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Hakim Warrick	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.01	0.10	-0.02	18	58%	0.21	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	0.00	7	33%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Mike Miller	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	7	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Conley	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	9	40%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.04
Darko Milicic	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	8	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Juan Carlos Navarro	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.09	-0.04	15	50%	-0.01	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.04
Jason Collins	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,-0.12	0.01	-0.14	-0.00	7	47%	-0.12	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.26
Rudy Gay	-0.42	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.23,-0.42	-0.04	-0.39	-0.01	23	46%	-0.19	3	-0.24	4	75%	-0.02

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.08,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.5	0.50	0.07	0.40	-0.03	18	60%	0.60	3	-0.11	4	75%	0.01
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.22,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.23	0.23	0.18	0.08	0.04	13	90%	0.31	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	4	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.06	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	2	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	7	67%	0.12	4	-0.20	4	50%	-0.01
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.13	-0.02	5	50%	0.04	1	-0.16	2	100%	0.01
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	12	37%	-0.06	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.11,-0.04,-0.05,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.13	-0.17	-0.03	11	39%	-0.18	5	-0.09	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.4	26.5	16.6	24.1	2.6	37.3	131.0
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +67.5%

SEA +19.5%

MEM -9.3%

MEM -25.9%

MEM -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	SEA	NBA	MEM	SEA	NBA
this game	14.8	13.0	15.4	97.1	104.9	105.7
season	14.9	14.5		103.3	99.1
opponent	15.0	14.9		107.9	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	15.4	14.2	15.2	14.5	14.8
SEA	11.7	15.8	12.5	12.2	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darko Milicic	44	44	0.22	-0.72	0.95	0.05	6	-13	19	16.1	13.9	2.23	12.6	13.3	-0.66
Mike Miller	26	25	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.01	4	-11	15	15.7	14.5	1.15	11.7	13.4	-1.73
Brian Cardinal	35	33	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.20	-5	-2	-3	14.3	15.1	-0.77	13.5	12.7	0.82
Kyle Lowry	42	41	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-7	7	13.4	15.8	-2.35	13.7	12.5	1.11
Juan Carlos Navarro	74	75	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.20	-4	-3	-1	14.9	14.7	0.23	13.3	12.1	1.21
Rudy Gay	88	89	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.38	-5	-2	-3	15.2	13.0	2.16	12.6	15.4	-2.74
Hakim Warrick	85	84	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.37	-8	1	-9	14.6	16.0	-1.44	12.9	13.5	-0.59
Mike Conley	68	67	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.33	-12	5	-17	15.1	14.2	0.92	12.8	13.4	-0.57
Jason Collins	58	57	-0.71	0.21	-0.93	-0.39	-11	4	-15	14.2	15.6	-1.40	13.6	12.2	1.36

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Watson	73	76	0.89	-0.39	1.28	0.36	18	-11	29	12.5	14.3	-1.85	14.8	14.9	-0.04
Delonte West	70	71	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.32	11	-4	15	12.3	14.4	-2.11	15.4	13.7	1.70
Wally Szczerbiak	58	58	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.47	5	2	3	13.1	12.9	0.14	14.1	15.7	-1.60
Jeff Green	56	57	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.26	11	-4	15	12.8	13.3	-0.49	15.7	13.8	1.94
Chris Wilcox	70	68	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.28	10	-3	13	12.9	13.2	-0.24	15.6	13.3	2.33
Kurt Thomas	32	32	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.08	6	1	5	11.3	13.8	-2.48	17.3	13.7	3.64
Johan Petro	30	31	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	8	-9	14.0	12.6	1.47	12.8	15.7	-2.88
Nick Collison	47	48	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.03	-3	10	-13	13.8	12.3	1.54	13.9	15.6	-1.77
Damien Wilkins	35	35	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	-0.07	-2	9	-11	13.8	12.6	1.27	13.1	15.7	-2.54
Robert Swift	14	16	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	0.02	-9	16	-25	14.1	12.8	1.33	13.9	15.0	-1.13
Luke Ridnour	30	28	-0.39	0.89	-1.28	-0.07	-11	18	-29	14.3	12.5	1.85	14.9	14.8	0.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.31,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.14,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.22,0.25,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.58,0.6,0.48,0.33,0.37,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.53,0.28,0.43,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 94, NYK 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.29,0.24,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.11,0.2,0.22,0.3,0.37,0.4,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.46,0.47,0.54,0.57,0.26,1	91.0%
IND 89, TOR 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.21,0.18,0.19,0.27,0.23,0.26,0.28,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.53,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.53,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.58,1	90.2%
DAL 112, NOP 114	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.2,0.12,0.14,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.35,0.22,0.3,0.26,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.67,0.31,1	90.0%