NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	111		Excitement	7.9 [243]		MVP	Peja Stojakovic (NOH): +54.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	107		Comeback	2.4 [606]		LVP	David West (NOH): -11.6%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peja Stojakovic	0.55	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.55	0.14	0.42	0.01	11	79%	0.58	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tyson Chandler	0.15	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.09	0.01	7	71%	0.20	2	-0.05	7	71%	-0.01
Bobby Jackson	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.06	0.00	7	79%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.02	-0.00	6	71%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Hilton Armstrong	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.04	0.00	2	100%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	17	55%	0.09	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.02
Jannero Pargo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David West	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.12,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.12	-0.06	-0.03	0.03	20	50%	0.05	5	-0.16	4	100%	0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yi Jianlian	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,0.05,0.25	0.25	0.09	0.18	0.01	6	72%	0.25	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.01	-0.02	6	100%	0.13	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.04	0.01	10	70%	0.15	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.00	9	74%	0.13	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.02
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.04	0.00	7	62%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.07
Michael Redd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.12,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.06	-0.01	24	52%	0.07	3	-0.09	10	90%	0.04
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.01	0.04	8	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	8	33%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	27.1	15.5	22.3	2.5	34.4	128.4
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +64.3%

NOH +5.8%

NOH +1.9%

MIL -18.3%

MIL -3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	MIL	NBA	NOH	MIL	NBA
this game	16.4	15.3	15.4	122.0	117.6	105.7
season	15.9	15.8		109.6	103.4
opponent	15.2	15.7		110.7	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	16.9	14.3	16.8	18.0	16.4
MIL	15.9	12.9	16.0	17.1	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David West	80	79	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.38	4	0	4	16.5	15.5	0.94	15.2	15.7	-0.55
Peja Stojakovic	66	67	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.26	5	-1	6	16.1	17.1	-0.97	15.0	15.9	-0.87
Chris Paul	67	67	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.26	5	-1	6	16.2	16.9	-0.68	15.0	15.9	-0.87
Tyson Chandler	72	71	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.30	0	4	-4	16.2	17.0	-0.79	14.2	19.2	-5.03
Bobby Jackson	38	39	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.17	4	0	4	16.2	16.5	-0.28	14.9	15.6	-0.71
Hilton Armstrong	19	20	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.08	4	0	4	17.4	16.1	1.32	18.1	14.5	3.62
Ryan Bowen	21	21	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.10	2	2	0	17.3	16.1	1.25	18.5	14.3	4.16
Rasual Butler	63	62	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.24	-4	8	-12	16.2	16.7	-0.49	14.8	16.2	-1.42
Jannero Pargo	29	29	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	4	-4	16.7	16.2	0.41	16.5	14.7	1.77

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Bell	32	31	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.04	0	-4	4	13.8	16.1	-2.21	14.5	17.3	-2.77
Desmond Mason	49	50	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.06	-1	-3	2	16.4	13.9	2.50	17.4	15.2	2.19
Yi Jianlian	40	42	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.18	0	-4	4	15.7	15.0	0.71	16.6	16.2	0.41
Dan Gadzuric	31	30	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.06	-5	1	-6	15.9	14.9	0.95	15.6	16.7	-1.10
Royal Ivey	23	23	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	0	-4	13.7	15.8	-2.17	15.3	16.7	-1.37
Mo Williams	68	68	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.29	0	-4	4	15.8	13.7	2.17	16.7	15.3	1.37
Andrew Bogut	60	61	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.32	1	-5	6	14.9	15.9	-0.95	16.7	15.6	1.10
Bobby Simmons	51	49	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.20	-4	0	-4	15.0	15.7	-0.71	16.2	16.6	-0.41
Michael Redd	81	80	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.36	-3	-1	-2	14.7	20.1	-5.42	16.0	18.7	-2.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.52,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.48,0.57,0.53,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 84, NJN 80	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.48,0.37,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.62,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.47,0.2,0.33,0.21,0.15,0.03,0.01,0	92.8%
NJN 108, DAL 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.58,0.65,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.41,0.53,0.39,0.07,0.04,0,0,0	92.3%
MIA 105, SEA 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.67,0.56,0.62,0.7,0.57,0.53,0.63,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.2,0.04,0.03,0.09,0	92.0%